Monthly Archive for September, 2007

State Dept. slams Hunt Oil-Iraq deal

The U.S. State Department said oil companies who sign deals in Iraq with the Kurdistan Regional Government are taking a risk, and this is what they tell companies who contact them.

When queried about the Hunt Oil deal signed with the KRG earlier this month, a state department spokesman said he was “not sure how much contact” Hunt had with the U.S. government prior to the signing, but that it hurts efforts at reconciliation and a national oil law.

Read the story from today’s press briefing HERE.

The KRG, relatively autonomous for 15 years, with its own security force, secure borders and economic development, it sets itself apart from the rest of Iraq.

But Baghdad insists any oil sector development must wait until a federal law is in place to govern not only the extent of foreign investment, but the role to be shared between the federal/regional/provincial governments.

The KRG, impatient and ready to continue to move forward, has been signing deals with private oil companies, which Oil Minister Shahristani has called illegal. He rephrased that, however, and said all of the deals the KRG signed prior to February, when a federal oil law was originally agreed upon, would be OK as long as they are retuned, if necessary, to comply with the federal law.

But Shahristani said the Hunt Oil deal was “illegal” no matter what, sparking a back-and-forth with the KRG that looks to remain ugly and not go away any time soon.

Simon Webb reports for Reuters the KRG said such moves by Shahristani are counterproductive.

“The Hunt contract was signed…according to the enacted regional law based on the federal constitution. There is no question about the legality of that or any other deal,” KRG government spokesman Khaled Salih said in a statement sent to Reuters by e-mail.

More Iraq Oil

The long awaited shipment of oil from Kirkuk has made it to Jordan. It’s the first of many more tankers to trek the dangerous road to the Jordanian border at market price minus $22 per barrel.

Any takers on Kirkuk crude? Head to Ceyhan. A tender for 5 million barrels was announced.

Iraq’s oil unions have issued a vaguely worded – or vaguely interpreted – statement saying rogue writers are working on behalf of their enemies to discredit them. The unions, while supported both by the masses and many politicos, have wielded their power and threats to shut down the oil sector if their workers’ rights demands aren’t met. Oh, and they also say the current draft of the oil law is a no-go if certain contracts giving too much rights to foreign/private oil companies are allowed.
The unions are accused of being partisans, a factually inaccurate claim which the leadership in Baghdad uses to delegitimize the unions.

Society, Security and Politics

Rep. Alcee Hastings has sponsored a bill giving special immigration status to Iraqi refugees. The U.S. has let in less than 1,500 displaced Iraqis since the war began while Syria and Jordan have combined to give shelter to more than 2 million.

Security in Diyala province is tense as former Sunni insurgents who pledged to join the federal Iraqi security forces have been refused.

The Biden Bill Flap

Sen. Joseph Biden’s decentralize Iraq bill has caused a stark reaction from Iraqi political leaders. The amendment to the 2008 defense funds bill was widely passed. It calls for U.S. support of weak-center federalism in Iraq, splitting the country by (not-so-fine) Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish lines.

The Kurdistan Regional Government was the first to opine:

The people of Kurdistan, who have struggled for decades to achieve democracy and freedom, see in federalism the promise of stability and freedom from dictatorial regimes. We welcome this significant resolution in support of federalism, which guarantees the survival of Iraq on the basis of voluntary union.

But Sunnis widely reject anything but a strong Baghdad-run Iraq. IraqSlogger posts the full version of Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi’s “national contract” for Iraq, which the leader of the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party got Shiite Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani to sign onto.

Al Sharqiya TV reports the Fadhilla, Sadr Movement, Tawafuq and National Dialogue Front political blocs have all rejected Biden’s bill.

And yesterday the Biden plan was condemned by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite.

Friday afternoon, Iraq’s Ambassador to the United States Samir Sumaida’ie issued the following statement:

The Iraqi people share more than their identity born of the legacy of their ancestors and the long history of their land; they share marriages and families, homes and neighborhoods, schools and hospitals. These unions, in addition to their Iraqi identity, bind them together. Despite the strains imposed by terrorists and extremists, their collective will is to stay united. That will is clearly expressed by the Iraqi constitution which stipulates a united, free, democratic and federal Iraq.

The non-binding resolution passed by the Senate on Wednesday, September 26th implicitly calling for the partitioning of Iraq into three separate entities along ethnic and sectarian lines, will not help to preserve Iraq; rather, it could lead to the break up of Iraq.

It is not a solution; it could complicate rather than simplify a difficult situation. The Iraqi people will not accept sectarian partitioning. Al Qaeda and other extremists must not be given such a victory, when together the multi-national forces, Iraqi Security Forces and the Iraqi people at large, have been making steady gains against them, and beginning to resolve their political differences.

Sectarian violence is a passing problem in Iraq as it was in other countries. It does not follow that the only solution for it is separation. A federal structure not withstanding, pushing for sectarian separation in Iraq at this juncture would encourage the spread of instability, violence and terrorism throughout the entire region. This would not only be detrimental to the interests of its peoples, but also to the interests of the United States.

The shape of a future Iraq will be determined solely by Iraqis themselves. Only they will decide on the finalization and interpretation of their constitution. The contributions made by the United States Congress and the American people are invaluable, and their sacrifices greatly appreciated. However, Congress must not be seen to undermine the will of the very people it helped to empower.

This resolution will not hasten the day American troops come home, which is a goal shared by Iraqis and Americans. If actively pursued, partitioning will do just the opposite.

U.S. not happy with Hunt Oil

U.S. Embassy officials in Baghdad told reporters Dallas-based Hunt Oil’s deal with the Kurdistan Regional Government has “needlessly elevated tensions” with the federal Iraq government. AFP has the story from Baghdad.

I’ll bring it up at Friday’s State Department briefing here in Washington, if there is one. So far the U.S. government has been fairly mum amidst accusations the deal undermined U.S. policy in Iraq and that CEO Ray Hunt’s connections to President Bush had something to do with the deal.

Statoil, soon to be StatoilHydro, the Norwegian oil firm, has opened up their Iraq office … in Irbil. Reidar Visser, research fellow at the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs, writes in an article published on his Iraq website www.historiae.org, that although the Irbil office is to be a launching point into Iraqi oil dealings from a relatively safe spot, it may harm reconciliation needed to create an Iraq with a good investment environment.

This feeds into fears that Iraq is de facto being urged to split apart, either from various interests wanting a fragmented Iraq or, as U.S. Sen. Joseph Biden’s legislation which was approved by the Senate Wednesday called for, a decentralized federal Iraq.

His plan has already been panned by nationalist Iraqi officials. Visser, obviously a busy man, writes about the legislation in The US Senate Votes to Partition Iraq. Softly.

Reuters’ World Affairs Columnist Bernd Debusmann writes about the growing suspicion that the war in Iraq is about oil.

Dilip Hiro in the Asia Times Online on The Oil Grab That Went Awry, what he calls “a prosecutor’s brief for the position that “the Iraq war is largely about oil”.”

Newsweek’s Jeffrey Bartholet sat down with Iraq’s Ambassador to the United States, Samir Sumaidaie. The interview, which can be read here, discussed briefly the oil law. It showed, however, the quality of an ambassador from such a war-torn country to the country occupying it.

On the issue of the U.S. demand for an oil law (among other legislative demands):

… there are complex issues that Congress here [in the United States], working in ideal conditions, has not put to bed. Take the immigration issue, which has been going on for years. Still not settled. And nobody is threatening their lives. The Iraqi parliament is doing the best it can. Maybe there is too much emphasis placed on the promulgation of these laws. …
On the oil law, as we speak the oil revenue is being distributed to the regions according to their populations. So we are applying the principles that matter. Sorting out the complex issues of legislation needs time.

Society, Security and Politics

The leader of Iraq’s largest Sunni political party has met with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, an influential Shiite leader, whose non-interference in politics is a blessing undervalued by the U.S. government. Sistani’s top aides have been targeted recently, showing how religious extremism is attempting to turn Iraq into another Iran/Taliban-Afghanistan. Kim Gamel of AP has the story.

The BBC reports Iraq and Turkey have reached what is likely to be a controversial deal giving Ankara the right to enter Iraq territory for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) actors they accuse of terrorism.

Iraq has been ranked by Transparency International as the third most corrupt country in the world.

TI’s 2007 Corruption Perception Index has Baghdad above Myanmar/Burma – in the news today for shooting protesting Buddhist monks – and Somalia.

This comes as House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Rep. Henry Waxman is furious that the U.S. State Department won’t answer questions and provide information on Iraq corruption, among other items.

Apparently State considers a working draft of a U.S. Embassy in Baghdad report on Iraq government corruption “classified.”

Iraq Oil Report has already posted the link to the site, which the Federation of American Scientists has on its site.

And just for good measure, here’s the report again.

Reuters reports the Iraq government will begin next week paying Arab families in the disputed Kirkuk area, settled there by Saddam Hussein, to leave. This will pave the way, though not necessarily decrease the violence, for the referendum that voters in oil-rich Kirkuk and other disputed territories will decided whether to join the Kurdistan Regional Government area.

Unfortunately for Iraqis, the rest of the country isn’t as safe as the KRG. McClatchy and Reuters recap violence from Wednesday.

This violence is not just taking a toll on the population of Iraq, or the chance of a government survival, or the ability for its economy to develop. As Bryan Pearson reports for AFP, ordinary Iraqis, like anyone else, bare the “mental scars” of the war.

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Iraq oil exploits and the legal regime

I sat down with J. Jay Park in Dubai, the man who helped the Somali government craft its new oil law and has worked with all sides in Iraq oil law. He holds training sessions for the Iraq Oil Ministry, and represented Canada’s Western Oil Sands in their contract with the Kurdistan Regional Government.

We talked about what an oil law is supposed to do, and how it is framed for Iraq’s massive reserves.

He even let me pester him on model contracts, including what the controversial production sharing contract would and wouldn’t be suitable for in Iraq.

Read the entire interview, which I wrote for UPI.

Excerpts:

The attributes from the point of view of the state are: is there going to be fair share of resource revenue going to the state? …

From the point of view of the investor, what they want to know is: is this a regime in which if they make a discovery they will be able to complete that development so they can monetize the investment that they make? …

What many countries have done is they’ve established a state oil company and give it the management and ownership of the existing resource base. The enhancement and the development of that resource base is then within the control of that state oil company. But new exploration operations would then be open for assessment as to how the state should deal with that. Many states take different approaches to that.

Q: But when you just take a production sharing agreement or production sharing contract, and if those were to be one of the model contracts that are available for the Iraq government to sign with an oil company, where do you see this being applicable, in the four annexes, and where would it not make sense to do a production sharing agreement, from the government’s standpoint? In Annex 1, would you sign a PSA in Annex 1?

A: Want the answer? Click HERE.

Iraq’s Oil

Leslie Sabbagh and Tom A. Peter of the Christian Science Monitor write a good piece on security and development in the oil sector. They missed a little, though.

Hits:

At a recent meeting in Amman, Jordan, Iraqi oil officials discussed the possibility of developing fields in southern Iraq with Chevron, the Kirkuk fields with Shell, and the eastern Baghdad fields with Japex.

The Russian company Ivanov is looking at Ghiada in northwest Iraq, while Conoco Phillips and the Iraqi government’s Northern Oil Company (NOC) have an agreement to share information that could lead to the development of a new field in the Kirkuk area, says Manaa Abdullah, the director general of Northern Oil.

Plans are being discussed to build three new major refineries in the north, center, and south. The intent is to produce 6 million barrels a day, and to export 5.2 million barrels by 2010. The NOC would contribute 1.5 million to 2 million barrels, Mr. Abdullah says.

Misses:
Relying too much on U.S. and Iraqi government officials and not cutting through their, to put it nice, unwarranted optimism.

A campaign to stop sabotage on the key Iraqi oil pipeline running north from Kirkuk to Turkey has led to sustained oil exports for the first time since the war began, say US officers and Iraqi officials. …

Iraqi oil officials in Kirkuk say the region’s fields are producing 520,000 barrels a day at the moment, 320,000 of which are piped to Ceyhan on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast. Ministry of Oil officials say current national production is 2.4 million barrels a day – nearly prewar levels – though outside analysts estimate production is close to 2 million barrels.

The pipeline which is supposed to send Iraq’s Kirkuk-area oil to Ceyhan, however, is not working more than it is. It gets fixed, it gets attacked. It was fixed recently and modestly pumping oil, but was attacked again last week and not only calling into question any short-term viability of oil production and exports in the area, but the blast sent oil into the Tigris River, threatening the water supply all the way to Baghdad.

The global energy information firm Platts has Iraq’s average daily oil production in August at 1.99 million barrels per day.

Reuters reports Iraq sold 2.5 million barrels of Kirkuk oil from Ceyhan Wednesday, and will issue a tender for 5 million more.

The agency also reports a major crude line from Baiji to Baghdad was bombed out of commission.

The attacks on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan line have been so frequent between the Kirkuk-Baiji strip, the government has been talking about a new line that would end around Baiji via the KRG area. Adn Kronos International reports talks have started again but it will take some internal and external political finagling for that to happen.

John Fout, political correspondent for TheStreet.com, writes a somewhat more realistically optimistic piece that Federalism in Iraq Could be a Gusher for Oil.

While Iraqis have less and less faith in the national government, which many Iraqis view as stooges for both the United States and Iran (yes, the irony is so good you want to cry), most Iraqis don’t support the weak central government federalism plan, also referred to as soft partition by those who favor it less.

U.S. Sen. Joseph Biden has garnered enough support for such a federalism plan, or the war so far has gone so poorly many members of Congress are looking for a change, that his amendment to the 2008 defense spending bill was approved by 75 out of 100 Senators Wednesday.

A bit of good news: A U.S. Army Corps of Engineers built power line was built and handed over to the Iraq Ministry of Electricity.

Security, Society and Politics

Since the British backed away from Basra — well, actually, since they took control years ago — the security situation has gotten worse. Religious fundamentalism has curbed free society and political and gangland turf wars have crowded out real life in arguably Iraq’s most important province. Most of Iraq’s oil is located in or around Basra, nearly all of Iraq’s exports go through the capital city’s port.

Kim Sengupta writes for The Independent that British troops may have to come back.

The Website of the Council on Foreign Relations, CFR.org, has just published the first two installments of a debate on the statistical measures of violence in Iraq, as well as a detailed analysis of the data. CFR Senior Fellow Stephen Biddle and Lawrence Korb, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, discuss the accuracy of these numbers here. Dr. Biddle’s analysis can be found here.

Robert Evans reports for Reuters on the growing refugee crisis

And last but not least, at all, a special congratulations to the 2007 winners of the Courage Award by the International Women’s Media Foundation: McClatchy’s Baghdad Bureau: Huda Ahmed, Shatha al Awsy, Sahar Issa, Alaa Majeed, Zaineb Obeid and Ban Adil Sarhan

In the midst of the war in Iraq, the women of McClatchy’s Baghdad bureau risked their lives just to get to work. Driven by the desire to report to the world about the situation in their country, they became the backbone of bureau.

Since the war began in 2003, Iraq has become the deadliest country in the world for journalists. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, more than 100 journalists have been killed, approximately 80 percent of whom were Iraqi journalists. The conflict is the bloodiest for journalists since World War II.

Constantly under duress, the McClatchy reporters have dodged gun battles and tiptoed around car bombs just to do their jobs. They’ve been targeted for their work. They’ve lost family members and friends. Their homes have been destroyed.

* Shatha al Awsy – Awsy has narrowly missed homemade bombs and has avoided gun battles and car bombs, all the while managing tough interviews with government officials and members of parliament. Once, when more than 40 families were killed at an illegal checkpoint, she reported even as she mourned. Because of ongoing threats and the perpetual fear that someone would find out what she did for a living and have her killed, she was forced to destroy all documents that indicated her identity and leave Iraq.

* Zaineb Obeid – A single mother of two, Obeid nearly died when a bomb-laden vehicle detonated near her on her way to work. She was thrown into the air and temporarily lost her hearing. She returned to work only days later.

* Huda Ahmed – Often sleeping in the office to cover late-breaking news after curfew, Ahmed would awaken each day only to start all over again. She covered the battle in Najaf in 2004 and compiled eyewitness accounts of a bombing in Musayyib before she allowed herself to grieve over violence sure to continue. Ahmed is the 2006-07 IWMF Elizabeth Neuffer Fellow.

* Ban Adil Sarhan – Though she had no previous journalism training, Sarhan doggedly reported, even up to days before the birth of her son. In 2004, insurgents gunned down her husband, daughter and mother-in-law, and Ban continued to receive threats on her own life. She narrowly escaped from Baghdad and now lives in Oklahoma with her son.

* Alaa Majeed – Bold and unconventional in reporting, Majeed has found and led others to extraordinary stories and embraced journalism as a means to help her country. She proved adept at understanding politics and was unafraid to pursue tough stories about the government, even in a time of turmoil.

* Sahar Issa – An ambitious reporter, Issa tells tales of grief and destruction, even though they’ve struck all too close to home. Her eldest son was caught in a crossfire in late 2005; he was shot and killed instantly. Issa has also faced going to the morgue to claim the body of a nephew who was killed in a market bombing. She found his body in two pieces. Issa continues to report from McClatchy’s Baghdad bureau.

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Iraq and the Oil Overshadowed

As the U.S. and world media play with President’s Bush and Ahmadinejad, there is a slowdown of Iraq energy related information.

However, Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani is none too pleased with the KRG.

Also in today’s Iraq Oil Report, Iraq offers Jordan more discounts to the oil.

Plus, at the end, I’ll supply some details to a few great comments to IOR.

First, Shahristani and the KRG. He’s long been an opponent of the KRG signing their own deals, calling them illegal. Mariam Karouny of Reuters reports Shahristani said even if the deals result in oil being pumped, it is illegal for anyone but the federal government to sell Iraqi oil.

Iraq has knocked another $4 per barrel off the already reduced price of oil it is selling to Jordan. It’s being billed by the government as a reward for Amman’s cooperation with Baghdad, but Iraq is way behind on the promised shipments and it could be a sign of appeasement to a Jordan with growing impatience.

Iraq’s most important city is Basra, both because 80-plus percent of the country’s oil is in or around the province, nearly 100 percent of the oil exports head to market from its ports, and rival Shiite political parties are violently filling a power vacuum created by the war, British control and now British evacuation.

In Iraqi Kurdistan, oil prospects are a motive to keep the area safe and the economy booming, as the AP’s Christopher Torchia reports.

Security, Society and Politics

A lesser known problem found in war time, but especially worrying as the Iraq war continues, is the threat to journalists. Being one, I’m especially fond of us surviving the wars we cover.
For those looking for information about Iraq, be it war coverage or the status of the hydrocarbons sector, journalists are a necessity.

According to Reporters Without Borders, 203 journalists and media assistants have been killed in Iraq since the war began; two are missing; and 14 are kidnapped.
Sameer Yacoub writes for the AP the Iraqi Journalists Union is teaching Survival Skills for Iraqi Reporters.

His colleague at AP, Lauren Frayer, reports on the bombing of meeting of Shiite and Sunni sheiks discussing reconciliation.

The PKK is a perpetual sore spot in the Iraq-Turkey-U.S. relationship, one that’s vital if there is to be stability in the region. Iraq’s interior minister is in Ankara to discuss the issue. Deterioration even on a sub-level, like additional shelling in the Iraqi Kurdistan area, or an incursion, could affect oil prices if not Iraq oil production itself.

Comments and Responses

Responses aren’t always warranted, and Iraq Oil Report will be a venue for debate and discussion only if it is helpful and civil.

Thanks to those raising issues and looking for explanation and clarification on previous posts. Both were regarding the post Clearing up the muddy Iraq oil debate and the full comments can be found at the end there.

Sources I respect report that the real problem with the hydrocarbon law is the U.S. insistence that PSA’s be signed with international oil interests. Oil is easily accessible in Iraq, and doesn’t require assistance from other nations. They have been harvesting their oil for a long time. These PSAs would be binding contracts for up to 30 years, and payments to the oil companies have been estimated to be as high as 80 percent of the profits.

The problem with reporting and commenting about the hydrocarbons law is there is no final version to point to and pick apart. Numerous previous drafts, however, give insight into the direction the law is heading in.

There is no official “insistence” that the Iraq government sign production sharing agreements with foreign/private oil firms, in or out of Iraq. Official government line is it is up to Iraq to decide what to do with its own oil. The U.S. government has contracted with various experts/lawyers/etc to help answer questions, provide technical advice and other support to not only the Oil Ministry but every ministry.

Of course, this takes place within the context of occupation and the U.S. prerogative to insist Iraq reform its economy. (Numerous debt relief and loan agreements with the global lending community — both Western and Arab nations as well as the IMF and World Bank — have insisted on this reform as well.) The reform is to break open the nationalized economy to a free market model of some sort. And the oil sector is the major sector of Iraq’s economy.

Back to the model contracts. The decision isn’t less about what it takes for Iraq to develop its oil sector, such as “assistance from other nations,” and more about the strategy for developing the sector. If Iraq wants to begin exploration of areas believed to have oil or begin developing discovered but not producing fields right away, then yes, it will need outside funds and expertise. The Oil Ministry and state-owned oil companies do not have the capacity, technology and human resources to do that right now. They are struggling — a struggle made more difficult by war — to improve the capacity of what is currently producing.

After exploration, Iraq is expected to find much more oil and gas reserves, and most likely the oil will be easy to produce and refine, thus lowering per barrel production costs. (I’m only talking about oil in this answer because the natural gas sector, which is huge, requires a lot of investment since there is virtually no infrastructure.) But without an idea of how much oil is located in a certain area, there is a measure of risk involved. Iraq will have to decide how to include that risk in the contracts, whether it is a PSA (or PSC or EPC or however the semantics of the contract model name play out) or another risk contract. There are other options, which include but are not limited to, nor am I discussing the additional political/economic/industry issues involved: holding off on exploration until security/economy improves; do nationwide, modern testing to get a better sense of the structures in the exploration blocks; sign service contracts for exploration.

As far as the terms of the PSA, they aren’t stipulated or mandated in the versions of the law previously published. A PSA is not inherently bad. It is the terms of the deal that decide whether the host country, the people, get the raw end. International/private/foreign oil firms want one thing: the best deal they can get. Expecting anything less is naïve. If they or another government are found to exert undue pressure and control of Iraq’s oil sector, as the anti-oil law campaigners assert, then this is an issue befitting an international court. It is up to Iraq’s government — amidst occupation, war, downward spiraling security and quality of life — to ensure that doesn’t happen.

You rightly describe the Revenue Sharing Law as separate legislation that will arbitrate the distribution of Iraq’s share of oil revenue. That, however, is not where the concerns of the Iraqi oil workers union and others lie. The concerns do lie with the federal oil law and the potential for undue foreign influence on oil contracts (most likely PSAs) by the Federal Oil and Gas Council (FOGC).

The draft Oil Law states quite explicitly that the FOGC will comprise not only Iraqi officials, but also “executive managers of important related petroleum companies.” While the provenance of these managers remains unstated, purposefully so, it is not difficult to imagine who might sit on this council. Moreover, the terms and conditions of the contracts approved by the FOGC will likely be held in the strictest confidence and it is exactly from this point that the concerns about the oil revenue arise. The public will not likely be privy to the revenue details as specified in these PSAs. PSAs will be approved, not by any transparent, democratic body, but by an unaccountable board comprised, at least in part, by unelected and, as indicated above, foreign appointees.

That we have already seen Hunt Oil — closely linked to Bush and Cheney — sign a PSA with the Kurds is precisely how much of the future conduct of the FOGC is expected to act: deals conducted in secret and suddenly announced, while the details of the revenue distribution between Hunt Oil and the KRG remain unknown.

First, as I’ve reported for nearly a year, the unions’ beef with the law is the extent it allows foreign/private oil firms into the Iraq oil sector.

The Oil Law will determine the foreign/private firms’ role in the sector via contracts, as discussed above.

The FOGC is a controversial one, with many complaints that members will include representatives of the state oil company, the regions/provinces and the ministry of oil. The regulated and the regulator, said Tariq Shafiq, a former Iraq oil official who co-authored the oil law and now opposes it because it has been altered too much. The final shape of the FOGC, and its actual role, remains to be seen, both in theory (the law) and practice (when it is formed and rules on contracts). It is possible, when reading the text, but highly unlikely that the president of ExxonMobil will sit on the FOGC and rule on Iraq oil deals.

As far as transparency of the contracts, there are a number of assurances the law will meet international standards. The Ministry is en route, I’m told, to joining the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. And earlier this month Oil Minister Shahristani said in public, echoing past words by Iraqi officials, that the contracts would be published whole and posted on the ministry’s website. If this doesn’t happen, there is sure to be outcries from inside and outside Iraq. And Your’s Truly will be writing about it regularly.

The Hunt Oil/KRG deal is important to highlight. Away from the politics/scandal which, I’m getting the vibe here in Washington, are not over yet, details of the contract, and other KRG deals with private firms, are not known. But those deals will have to be evaluated by FOGC, once the law, if the law, is approved, and thus made public.

Iraq Oil Report is still less than a month old, but hopefully is helpful, insightful and important to a wide audience for a variety of reasons. Any comments are welcome, either to me personally or posted on the site. Check out the links at the top right column for more information on that.
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The Greenspan flap, Iraq’s oil and accusations of U.S. attempts to control it…

Former Fed. Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan, prophet of U.S. economic stability, sure started a firestorm with the 20 words in his book that said the Iraq war is about oil.

Walid Khadduri reports in Dar Al-Hayat on the ensuing discussion that needs to happen now that the flames have been fanned.

A person with the weight of Greenspan should have been aware of the impact of these comments on US policy toward Iraq and the Middle East in general. It’s important now to search for the necessary evidence to document his comments, examine the background for them and avoid making such mistakes in the future.

Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies also has a take.

The US cannot steal Iraq’s oil in any meaningful way. Iraq almost certainly has far more than the 112 billion barrels of proven reserves it is credited with in most sources. …

The real issue is not taking oil for the US; it is securing oil for the global economy. The US depends on that economy for its growth and at least indirectly for part of every job in the US. It not only needs direct imports, it needs oil to flow from Gulf to all of its major trading partners: Europe, China, Japan, South Korea, and all of the other powers that trade and invest with the US. If they cannot buy oil reliably at market prices, the world economy will weaken and the US economy with it.

I reported on it last week for UPI: Iraq, Oil and Greenspan’s Gospel.

Jasim Dakhil writes for the UK-based Arabic paper Asharq Al-Awsat the debate over ‘war for oil’ is currently clouding a more pressing matter: Squandered Wealth: Oil Smuggling in Basra

The Hunt for Hunt Oil

Richard Wolffe and Gretel C. Kovach write for Newsweek on the relationship between Hunt Oil CEO Ray Hunt and his connections to the Bush administration.

Michael Fletcher writes in the Washington Post on the Hunt Oil stirrup.

SourceWatch has more background on Hunt Oil.

More Iraq Oil

The Irish firm Petrel Resources is one of the firms doing some testing and analysis for the Iraq Ministry of Oil.

It’s leadership is big on Iraq oil chances but if it gets the production sharing agreements on the discovered fields it wants, then there’s another problem it must face: outcry from the oil unions, campaigners and more who will raise the assurances made by the Iraqi government that only fields with real risk – those found in current exploration blocks – will qualify for risk contracts.

Society, Security and Politics

AFP is reporting the Senate may vote Tuesday on a plan to split Iraq into regions. (I wonder how well this plan will be received by Iraqis who are largely none too happy about the current U.S.-administered plan?)

Dahr Jamail writes for the Institute for Policy Studies’ Foreign Policy In Focus project The Royal Treatment: Saudi Involvement in Iraq Overlooked. Dahr is an independent reporting who has covered Iraq largely for Inter Press Service. His new book, Beyond the Green Zone: Dispatches from an Unembedded Journalist in Occupied Iraq is out this month.

Hiba Dawood’s daily write-up for UPI: the Iraq Press Roundup

Two great forecasters for Iraq politics, which will determine the political and security climate for any oil law and oil sector development, are detailed by University of Michigan Middle East expert Juan Cole website Informed Comment.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that former prime minister Ibrahim Jaafari visited Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani in Najaf on Saturday. Jaafari was expected to meet with representatives of the Sadr Movement later that day. Al-Hayat says that two main interpretations of the visit have been put forward. One is that Jaafari is attempting to repair the rifts in the United Iraqi Alliance, the ruling Shiite fundamentalist bloc created by Sistani in the fall of 2004. In that case he was getting Sistani’s blessing for the effort and seeking his intercession with Muqtada al-Sadr, who has withdrawn his bloc from the coalition.

The second interpretation is that Jaafari is attempting to make a new bloc in parliament that would include the Sadrists, and which would undermine Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. In that case he was seeking Sistani’s blessing for the effort or at least ensuring that the grand ayatollah was not dead set against it.

Al-Hayat also reports on the worsening security situation in the south. It reports one member of the federal parliament as complaining about a wave of assassinations in Basra. Some 100 persons were cut down just in the past week, he alleged, including two aides to Sistani. He demanded the resignation of the Basra police chief and threatened a vote of no confidence against the minister of the interior if nothing was done to stem the killings.

Sawt al-Iraq in Arabic says that not just one but several parliamentarians are called for the resignation of Minister of the Interior Jawad al-Bulani because of the downward security spiral in the south.

The head of the parliamentary committee on security, Hadi al-Amiri, agreed about the worsening situation but said that the security forces were doing the best they could. Al-Amiri is head of the Badr Organization paramilitary, attached to the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), and many police and other security men in Basra were drawn from Badr. So, ironically, the head of the parliamentary security committee is also the leader of one of Iraq’s best-trained Shiite militias.

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Clearing up the muddy Iraq oil debate

This is a good time to clear up some of the issues surrounding the debate over Iraq’s oil and proposed legislation related to the hydrocarbons sector.

Oil Law Semantics

Except for President Bush, most members of Congress and others detached, the “Oil Law,” also referred to as the “Oil and Gas Law” and the “Hydrocarbons Law,” DOES NOT, let’s repeat, DOES NOT address revenue sharing except for calling for a SEPARATE REVENUE SHARING LAW.

The Oil Law is the main piece of legislation that the U.S. government in Iraq has been urging the Iraqi government to make progress on. It is currently before the Parliament, but they have not decided on a final draft version to put forward. This is muddled back here in Washington, where benchmarks call for an oil law that distributes revenue.

Two questions have not been answered by Iraqis, thus are holding up this bill:
1. How much control will the federal government have over the oil sector strategy, and what will be the role of the oil producing regions and provinces?
2. What role will the foreign/private sector play?

The law has been touted as a benchmark that will lead to reconciliation. In reality, reconciliation will come first, and then an oil law will follow.

The Revenue Sharing Law is the bill that goes to the heart of the matter: will the oil proceeds be distributed to all — and on what basis? — or will fears of certain players being excluded be realized?

While an agreement was reached, it has since fell out of favor by parties involved. The law is not even out of the Iraqi cabinet, the step before being sent to Parliament. It is this bill, not the oil law, which will decide how revenue is shared.

Also, most politicos in Iraq say neither law will be approved on its own. They are part of a package of laws to be taken up together. This includes bills to reconstitute the Iraqi National Oil Company and reorganize the Ministry of Oil.

Mariam Karouny reports for Reuters the deputy speaker of Iraq’s parliament says the oil law will be debated next month. For what it’s worth…

The Hunt for Hunt Oil

Jim Landers in The Dallas Morning News reports the Dallas-based firm that signed the deal with Iraqi Kurdistan has defended its contract and the KRG representative to the United States has as well.

”We’re a privately held company. We do not make it a practice to discuss our business dealings with anyone except the involved parties, and in this case the U.S. government is not an involved party,” Hunt Oil spokeswoman Jeanne Phillips said.

“What’s undermining the government is the lack of progress on the [national] oil law,” said (Qubad) Talabani, the son of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. “This deal didn’t undermine the oil law per se. It will give it a good kick up the backside to get the process moving forward.”

More on Iraq Oil

Steve Remp has raised more than $1M in backing to team Ramco Energy with Peter Redman’s Midmar Energy to form the Mesopotamia Petroleum Company. You guessed it, as Mark Williamson reports in The Herald, they’re heading into Iraq.

Remp, who led Ramco’s exploration in Azerbaijan, followed by a disastrous move into production off Ireland, has raised the cash to help fund efforts to win services contracts ahead of possible bids for exploration licences.
The money, which it is believed was provided by a US institution. …

And Greenspan Continues…

Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan further explains his Iraq oil for war comments to Charlie Rose. Of course, it’s nothing new, as I explained in my report for UPI, Iraq, Oil and Greenspan’s Gospel.

Security, Society and Politics

University of Michigan Middle East expert Juan Cole gives more context to two major events in Iraq.

The US kidnapped another Iranian from Iraqi Kurdistan, alleging that he is an officer in the Quds Force section of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and an arms smuggler. The Kurdistan Regional Authority says that he is Aghai Farhadi, a trade representative of Kirmanshah Province in Iran.

Either the US suspicions about Farhadi are baseless, or the Kurds are the major conduit for Iranian arms into Iraq. Five other Iranians were kidnapped from Irbil by the US military. Farhadi would not be doing what he was doing in Sulaimaniya unless he was the guest of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. If he was smuggling in arms, he was smuggling them to the Peshmerga, the Kurdish paramilitary, which is allied with the United States. Presumably this means that the Peshmerga is either treansfering the weapons to the Badr Corpsselling the arms off on the Iraqi black market. If this scenario is correct, then it is pure propaganda for the USG to complain so loudly and bitterly about Iranian meddling in Iraq, when it is being facilitated by some Kurds, who are in turn putative US allies.

The cholera outbreak in northern Iraq has now reached Baghdad. This article reveals that chlorine shipments into Iraq from Jordan are being held up, presumably by the US military. Sunni Arab guerrillas have launched several chlorine truck bomb attacks, and presumably the chlorine ban responds to such threats. But without chlorine, water purification plants won’t work, which means Iraqis downstream of a big city are drinking sewage.

Meanwhile, two aides to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani were assassinated Friday, a key development in the intra-Shiite power struggle. Katarina Kratovac reports on it for the AP.

And as the Shiite-led government in Baghdad stalls, Waleed Ibrahim and Dominic Evans report the Sunni leadership is getting impatient.

Spencer Ackerman reports for TPMmuckraker on a new Congressional Budget Office estimate that puts the long-term Iraq war plan will cost U.S. taxpayers trillions of dollars.

And, while Blackwater restarts operations in Iraq following their alleged massacre of innocent Iraqis, Stephen Colbert satirizes the situation, in the ‘if you don’t laugh, you’ll cry sort of way.
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Iraq Oil Unions Claim U.S. Troops Shot Chief Engineer

The Iraq Federation of Oil Unions held a protest in Basra today outside the Southern Oil Company’s office. They claim U.S. troops shot a worker in the Rumaila field, and want action by both the Iraq and U.S. governments.

“They treated him as if he was an animal, they shot at him and kept on moving,” Faleh Abood Umara, general secretary of the Iraqi Federation of Oil Unions, told United Press International.

“The attack in the oil fields seems also to be designed to push the Iraqi government to take further harsh and repressive measures against the oil workers at a time when they are resisting the privatization of the industry,” the statement said.

“We want to do things and solve problems in a peaceful way,” Umara said. “We are more likely going to hold a strike and stop working. Meetings are continuing to decide the next step.”

Hiba Dawood mentions this today in UPI’s Iraq Press Roundup.

The Hunt for Hunt Oil

Dallas-based Hunt Oil’s production sharing contract with the Kurdistan Regional Government didn’t just irk Baghdad. It really caused some strain in Washington. A company well-connected to President Bush decided to sign an oil deal which basically went against stated U.S. policy in Iraq.

Today, Bush said he had no idea about the deal.

“I need to know exactly how it happened,” he added. “To the extent that it does undermine the ability for the government to come up with an oil revenue-sharing plan that unifies the country, obviously I’m — if it undermines that, I’m concerned.”

Russia’s Wants

Iraqi and Russian foreign ministers have been meeting in Moscow. Kommersant reports Iraq may give Russia priority status on contracts, especially oil, in exchange for Russia wiping out 90 percent of the $10 billion in debt Iraq owes from Saddam-era weapons sales.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari sits down with Interfax Moscow and talks about the controversial Lukoil deal, economic development and diplomatic relations between the two countries.

More Iraq Oil, Electricity

Baghdad water affected by oil leak into Tigris from Kirkuk pipeline explosion. Azzaman has more on its affect on the Tigris River.

Iraq Finance Minister says oil sales next year will fill only 85 percent of budget

Justin Dargin in the Asia Times Online on “The Rise and Fall of Iraq’s Oil Law”

Thomas Frank writes in the USA Today the “Problematic power grid plagues Iraqis”

Security, Society and Politics — the issues that will shape oil exploration in Iraq

IraqSlogger reports while the Mahdi Army has frozen operations, break out squads are targeting U.S. forces.

The Jamestown Foundation recently held an event titled Islamic Movements in Iraqi Kurdistan. The video of it can be viewed HERE.

Spencer Ackerman writes in Iraq Forever? for The American Prospect that “Last week’s intense focus on whether the surge was working obscured the real Bush agenda — a long-term U.S. presence in Iraq.”

Max Boot of the Council on Foreign Relations writes in Commentary Magazine on How Not To Get Out Of Iraq

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Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s right-hand man on energy, Thamir Ghadhban,…

… is a well respected oil man, a technocrat and a politician.

Rumor has it that when the Iraq National Oil Company is finally reestablished, he’s in line to be in charge.

He sat down with me in Dubai to discuss a number of issues, all in my interview published HERE by UPI.

The country is in need of energy, all sources of energy such as oil, gas, oil products. And it has the resources, we have the reserves. It’s only a matter of reorganizing ourselves, implementing plans and also, of course, implement the projects.

Such as we have shown, such as the stopping of flaring of the gas, collection of gas, separation, processing, providing LPG and providing the right gas for power generation. There is no doubt that Iraq has the potential to become an exporter of gas, of course as well as it is already an exporter of oil but it will be at a much higher level. …

Number two, this probable reserve, the figure of 214 billion barrels, we have to work hard to convert parts of it into proven reserves and therefore there has to be exploration by Iraqi efforts in addition to that by IOCS. …

So I believe we have taken enough measures, legally, in order to ensure such objectives to make the awards of contracts and the practice to be transparent and without corruption. Of course it is then up to the practice and implementation. …

Read the entire interview HERE.

Where’s the Corruption?

The Federation of American Scientists has published a “sensitive but unclassified” draft report by the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad on corruption in the Iraqi government.

It is a working draft, first exposed by David Corn in The Nation.

Excerpt:

In conversations with the Senior Consultant of Oil an atmosphere of intimidation by the IG over the minister is described. The IG office concentrates on administrative technicalities at the expense of oil theft or procurement. In the IG’s defense there are no
IG investigators capable of confronting oil theft rings that have come to fore supported by violent groups. …

The major case coming out of MOE concerned the first Minister Aiham al Aammarae from the Allawi administration. Al Sammarae was sent to the investigative court on 10 charges worked up by BSA. Seven of which were dismissed and he was released as to those cases. Three of which he remained detained and were bound over for trial. One case was tried and found guilty the other two were pending.
On the day he was found guilty he was spirited away by his American PSD and tried to get into the US Embassy. The US Ambassador ordered that he be returned to Iraqi custody.

The Hunt for Hunt Oil Continues

Congressman Dennis Kucinich has stood on the U.S. House floor demanding an inquiry into the Hunt Oil exploration deal with the Kurdistan Regional Government.

He points to the fact CEO Ray Hunt has raised millions for the Bush administration and the Republican Party, as well as sits on the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board.

Bush crony + top U.S. intelligence + oil deal with Iraqi region accused of undermining the federal government = SCANDAL

Here is Kucinich’s full statement, accusations and demands for inquiry.

Now that Hunt signed in Iraqi Kurdistan, other oil firms must decide whether to follow suit or holdout for deals in the big prize: the rest of Iraq, where most of the proven and probable reserves are located.

Majors have been reluctant, as Ed Crooks and Sheila McNulty wrote in the Financial Times, waiting action by Baghdad on its reserves and exploration blocks.

Some countries, like the Russians, want in on the oil wealth and say they are due deals because of contracts signed with Saddam Hussein. Russian and Iraqi leaders meeting in Moscow today discussed just that.

Also, Prime Minister Maliki called his Jordanian counterpart to assure him the preferred priced oil supplies are coming.

Society, Security, Politics — the issues that will shape oil exploration in Iraq.

Joshua Holland writes for Alternet of a new study putting Iraqi deaths since the war at 1.2 million.

Bob Herbert writes in The New York Times of the “humanitarian nightmare in Iraq.”

Robert Fisk writes in The Independent on “The Death of History,” as artifacts in and out of museums in one of the oldest homes of civilization in the world are plundered four four-plus years.

The Jamestown Foundation publishes a new report titled Islamist Groups in Kurdistan. This is the one part of Iraq that is relatively peaceful and has seen security, political and economic developments. But there is a contingent there wanting a more Islamic-oriented state, which adds to the powder keg of Kurdish independence as a whole, which has resulted in accusations the KRG is harboring “terrorists” and Turkey and Iran have launched attacks as a result.

Meanwhile, as if living in Iraq isn’t hard enough right now, let alone joining the highly secularized security forces, Molly Hennessy-Fiske writes for the Los Angeles Times on the status of female soldiers in Iraq’s army and police. Thanks for this story, Molly.

And Hiba Dawood writes for UPI the Iraq Press Roundup.
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Iraq War, Oil and Greenspan’s Gospel

The U.S. media blew up, and the Bush administration responded, when the 20 words from former Fed. Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan’s new book called out the oil motive for the Iraq war.

Greenspan utilized his 15 minutes on the book circuit to explain what he meant to say, an apparent attempt to take the heat off of Pres. Bush.

With the word of war with Iran (no. 2 in both oil and gas reserves) heating up, Greenspan’s explanation is all the more vivid: those who depend on oil will protect the supply.

For more, read my piece today for UPI.

“He is wrong. Oil was not and is not a motivation for our actions in Iraq,” the U.S. State Department’s coordinator for Iraq, David Satterfield, said after a speech at the Center for Strategic & International Studies the same day.

“I’m not saying that they believed it was about oil. I’m saying it is about oil and that I believe it was necessary to get Saddam out of there,” Greenspan said.

In other words, he’s not saying the Iraq war was launched because of Iraq’s oil, but Iraq’s oil was a reason — along with now discredited allegations Saddam had weapons of mass destruction and links to al-Qaida — to launch the Iraq war.

“When we went into Iraq, I said it’s all about getting rid of Saddam Hussein,” said Robert Ebel, senior adviser in the Energy Program at CSIS. “Once we got rid of Saddam Hussein, then the day after it would be about oil.”

More on Iraq Oil

Bush/Petraeus/Crocker kept repeating last week the fact that the oil pipeline from Kirkuk to Turkey was reopened after spending most of the war years under attack and out of commission, a small sign of progress. A bomb blast Tuesday morning corrected that.

Total and Chevron announced earlier this year they’ve joined forces to bid for Iraq’s oil development. Hassan Hafidh of Dow Jones Newswires reports the duo has now pitched a development study to the Iraq Oil Ministry on the huge Majnoon field, though the Ministry says it will not give them preferential treatment in bidding.

Shipments of preferred price oil are heading to Jordan now.

Fending off attacks on the oil pipelines and power infrastructure around Baghdad requires Russian helicopters on shoot-to-kill orders.

The fuel shortage is now threatening southern Iraq’s once vibrant fishing industry.

The Hunt for Hunt Oil

As I warned when Texas-based Hunt Oil first signed a production contract with the Kurdistan Regional Government, the Bush-connected CEO would be in the cross-hairs.

Janet Ritz writes for the Huffington Post:

Which leads to questions about the Bush Administration’s involvement in the deal, given that Ray L. Hunt, the head of Hunt Oil (and one of President Bush’s guests to the May, 2007 State Dinner for Queen Elizabeth II), was appointed to a two two-year terms on President Bush’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board …
Established by Eisenhower in 1956, the PFIAB was formed “as a nonpartisan body offering the President objective, expert advice on the conduct of U.S. foreign intelligence.” The question then becomes, considering the known oil affiliations within the current administration, how objective is that advice and how is information from the board being utilized by its membership?

Paul Krugman writes in The New York Times that the deal directly conflicts with official U.S. policy to prop up Baghdad, not so much Irbil.

What’s interesting about this deal is the fact that Mr. Hunt, thanks to his policy position, is presumably as well-informed about the actual state of affairs in Iraq as anyone in the business world can be. By putting his money into a deal with the Kurds, despite Baghdad’s disapproval, he’s essentially betting that the Iraqi government - which hasn’t met a single one of the major benchmarks Mr. Bush laid out in January - won’t get its act together. Indeed, he’s effectively betting against the survival of Iraq as a nation in any meaningful sense of the term.

Meanwhile, in Basra …

Sam Dagher writes an excellent three-part series for the Christian Science Monitor on the threats to safety, security and freedom in Basra. Most of Iraq’s oil is in or around Basra, and nearly all its oil exports head to the international market through there. Basra is arguably Iraq’s most important city.

Part 1: Basra Oil Fuels Fight to Control Iraq’s Economic Might

An exasperated senior official, who did not want to be identified for fear of retribution, describes the onslaught by parties and militias intent on controlling the company by forcing their loyalists into key management positions. Some are beholden to the Ministry of Oil in Baghdad, which is controlled by the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), the dominant Shiite coalition to which Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki belongs.

“There is an invasion by parties and militias … we are a mouthwatering prize,” he says, adding that recently 8,000 people, most of them illiterate, were pushed on to the company’s payrolls.

Part 2: In The ‘Venice of the East,’ A History Of Diversity

The city’s cosmopolitan flair is evident in its people, cuisine, dance, and the music that once echoed on its streets.

The city was once full of different religious groups: Shiites, Sunnis, Christians of all sects, ancient communities like the Sabean Mandaeans, Armenians, and Jews. But most, other than the Shiites, have left.

Part 3: ‘Shiite Taliban’ Rises As British Depart Basra

The billboard in Umm al-Broom Square was meant to advertise a cellphone service. Instead, it has become a message to those who dare to resist the rising tide of fundamentalist Islam in Iraq’s second largest city.

The female model’s face is now covered with black paint. Graffiti scrawled below reads, “No! No to unveiled women.”

Politics and Security

My UPI colleague Shaun Waterman reports that Iraq’s government may want the Blackwater security forces out of Iraq, but they may not get it.

Iraqi Interior Ministry officials told reporters in Baghdad Monday they would revoke the company’s license and initiate criminal proceedings after Blackwater contractors providing security for U.S. diplomats allegedly opened fire from aircraft into a Baghdad street — killing 11 people, according to some reports.

The problem is, Blackwater does not have or need a license, and its employees are not subject to Iraqi criminal jurisdiction.

What the Iraq media is saying: the Iraq Press Roundup by UPI’s Hiba Dawood

University of Michigan’s Middle East expert Juan Cole talks to Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo about Anbar province now that the person Pres. Bush heralded as the leader of the anti-al-Qaida surge has been assassinated.

Investigative reporter Greg Palast writes Sheik Abu Risha wasn’t a leader in Anbar at all.
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A note about Monday’s post: there wasn’t one. Technology glitch. But today’s monster post should make up for it. More tomorrow.

The Real Energy Security Factor

This week was filled with the Petraeus/Crocker/Congress/Bush/benchmark circus. It’s Friday and the Iraq Oil Report will now refrain (OK, I’ll have some good links at the end of today’s report).

The three rings barely touched on oil anyway, with the administration touting the dissemination of oil revenue as a sign of success and Congress pointing to the Iraqi government not passing an oil law as a sign of failure. Neither take into account how weighty the discussions over the law are and its importance to the future of Iraq.

But outside of the bureaucracy, be it Washington or Baghdad, there are real bullets and bombs that clearly demarcate policy and practice in Iraq’s energy sector.

The following is data of attacks the energy sector has faced from April 2003 through the third week of August 2007, according to an expert in threats and vulnerability to the energy sector worldwide who only speaks on condition of anonymity. The source, who has been thoroughly vetted and utilized by UPI, stresses the data is only derived aggregating open source information. “My number underestimates the total number of attacks by an amount I cannot know,” the source told me.

OIL SECTOR
Pipelines: 550 incidents, an estimated 3-5 percent of which affect multiple pipelines by single or multiple attacks.
Refineries: 65 incidents, including attacks on tank farms and any area within the perimeter fence.
Tankers: incidents — tank car – 1; tanker trucks – 287; maritime tankers – 6.
Fields and wells: 23 incidents
Workers (security personnel, drivers, etc.): 641

POWER SECTOR
Lines and towers: 85 incidents (“This number does not even come close to the actual number of attacks on these assets,” the source said. “For the most part, attacks on them go unreported or at best reported in ways such that it is not possible to determine where the attack(s) occurred; what exactly was hit … it is likely there have been thousands of attacks on these assets for purposes of sabotaging the national grid, for metal theft, or for extorting or attempting to extort higher fees for protecting them.”)
Stations and generators: incidents — thermal – 63; hydro – 5
Substations: 13 incidents
Workers: 318 (“This number I know is low. The available accounts describe the victims in ways it is difficult to know how many were actually attacked. … I estimate the real number of victims is about twice what I have in the data base.”)

A new Energy Profile of Iraq by Energy Publisher

A $9B game of hide (not too much) seek

Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele report in the October issue of Vanity Fair about the $9 billion shipped from the U.S. Federal Reserve to Baghdad that is not accounted for. Where did the money come from? Some of it was U.S. tax pay; most was Iraq’s own oil revenue.

As the gulf between Baghdad and Irbil widens, Gareth Jenkins writes in The Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor a key investor in Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey, is being squeezed.

Guntekin Koksal of the Turkish oil company Petoil noted that their local joint venture had begun drilling for oil in northern Iraq’s Bin Bavi field in August 2006, but they were finding it difficult to export the oil along the existing pipeline to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Yumurtalik.
“In order to transport the oil we need to use the Kirkuk-Yumurtalik pipeline but we can’t because the necessary agreement hasn’t been signed with Turkey,” said Koksal.

People, Politics and Security

Baghdad residents want their homes to be protected from militants

Lt. Col. Michael Eisenstadt, Middle East foreign area officer in the U.S. Army Reserve, on the need to engage tribes and sheiks in order to attain support of many of the Iraqi people. Initial U.S. m.o.: ignore because they weren’t “democratic.”

An insightful piece by George Packer in the New Yorker titled Planning for Defeat: How should we withdraw from Iraq?

Two great pieces by Reidar Visser, research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and editor of the Iraq website www.historiae.org:

It Is the Partition of Iraq that Would Be Truly “Artificial” published in the History News Network

The Surge, the Shiites and Nation Building in Iraq in The Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor

The Iraq Press Roundup by UPI’s Hiba Dawood

And here’s the long awaited perspective you need on the aforementioned circus:

Iraq Slogger compares the White House’s benchmarks report with the GAO version.

Two pieces from the U.S. Institute of Peace:

Seven Months Into the Surge:What Does It Mean For Iraqis? by Senior Fellow Rend al-Rahim Francke

Iraq: Time for a Change by Daniel Serwer, vice president of the Center for Post-Conflict Peace and Stability Operations and the Centers of Innovation

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