Iraq Oil Report

Iraq’s government spokesman, Dr. Ali al-Dabbagh, detailed the struggles the Iraqi government faces during a speech Monday at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

His focus was on the Turkish issue, Iranian influence, and militia and insurgent activity.

On the oil law, he said there are a number of technical points to be ironed out, but a somewhat limited agreement on a February version of the draft law (fyi: there are many version floating around and no one really knows which one to look to).

“There’s an amendment and there’s editing in the draft, and this makes the Kurds object,” he said regarding the back-and-forth over the law’s wording. “Finally they agreed to go back to that draft.”

However, the Kurds say that version was agreed to in principle but it was incomplete, and the changes that were made prior to being sent to the Parliament are a deal breaker.

Dabbagh blamed the Iraqi Accord Front, or Tawafuq, the large Sunni bloc in Parliament, for using the law in their political dispute against Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government.

“Not because they are refusing this oil law but because they have a problem with the prime minister and they want to block this oil law,” he said. “They know very well how important is this oil law for Iraq and is a sort of putting and applying pressure on the prime minister and on the government.” Dabbagh added the government is looking to other Iraqi Sunnis to take Tawafuq’s place.

Tawafuq has, however, has also protested what they consider to be terms too lenient to allowing foreign firms into the so far nationalized Iraqi oil sector, as well as the way it decentralizes the role of the government in the oil sector, stoking fears that Sunnis, as a minority, will be left out.

Parliament’s energy committee now needs to figure out a final version to push forward, but it appears unlikely to happen anytime soon.

“I don’t deny we have a problem … a political problem,” he responded to a dual question about the lack of progress on the oil law and other benchmarks, and the fact there is little political cohesion in the government. He called it the “responsibility of all the parties which participate in the government” to reach a deal on reform.

“This reform, unless it happens with in the coming two months, I think the situation will be fragile. We might face a problem because the situation cannot continue with what we have right now.”

Dabbagh said a revenue sharing agreement still holds, though the revenue sharing law is further behind than the oil law. He emphasized the need for more transparency, and a vague reference to all the details of oil production being declared publicly by 2009.

On the Kirkuk referendum, “I think there is not enough time by the end of the year to have the referendum in Kirkuk.” There has been no census yet, which needs to take place to determine eligible voters in oil-rich Kirkuk and other disputed territories. The voters would likely approve joining the Kurdistan Regional Government, which has said that a 3-6 month delay into next year will be OK if it is based on technical issues. If it is political, then that’s another story.

Iraq’s Fuel

The black market still thrives in Iraq, despite moves to jack up the prices. Jim Landers in The Dallas Morning News reports on the competing Iraqi and Iranian black market for fuels.

The Turkish Invasion

The Turkey-PKK-Iraq-KRG-U.S. dispute has garnered much deserved media attention, as well as plenty of feedback passed on to me and the Iraq Oil Report.

But first, the latest:
The U.S. is weighing whether it will take action by dumping bombs on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party hideouts in the Qandil Mountains instead of Turkey, Bay Fang writes for the Chicago Tribune.

All this additional fighting will mean more displaced Iraqis, and aid agencies are preparing.

While Turkey is a U.S. ally, Iran is not. So Kurdish guerillas attacking Iran isn’t getting the same attention, Richard A. Oppel Jr. writes in The New York Times.

In fact, the U.S. is actively supporting the PKK’s Iranian-focused cousin, the PJAK, Reza Zebari writes for The Jerusalem Post.

Now, here’s a healthy sample of comments on the issue received by Iraq Oil Report:
This isn’t the first time Turkey has crossed into Iraq to take on the PKK, both before or after the 2003 invasion. Bottom line: they haven’t been too successful. And there has been plenty of hot air from Washington, Baghdad and Irbil about the threat and dangers of the PKK, but little real action to either fold them into the political process or expel them.

Turkey, with the second largest NATO forces, should be able to stop the PKK inside Turkey if military success against the PKK is even possible.

Turkey failing to succeed against the PKK militarily will cause an additional dilemma internally, as the political leaders and the military leaders square off, and citizens rally.

That Kurds themselves are fed up with the PKK, which is why the separatist group is no longer active in cities, but in mountains. Plus the forces of the PKK have been thinned and weakened over the years.

Society, Security and Politics

Iraq, the Surge, Partition, and the War: Public Opinion by City and Region is the new report authored by Anthony H. Cordesman from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. It details and analyzes the most important information which the media and the governments of the United States and Iraq are missing: the peoples’ opinion.

It also lays out the major conflicts in Iraq, which is beyond the Al Qaida mantra we hear so much of, and is critical to understanding what Iraqis face.

And, most importantly, it shows the quality of life of Iraqis diminishing, as is their hope for their future and the faith of their government.

Iraq’s south is becoming more violent, as Kareem Zair reports for Azzaman the militias of the Sadr Movement and the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Counil (backed by the United States) escalate fighting.

The Iraq Press Roundup by UPI’s Hiba Dawood.

The young Baghdadi woman only known by the pseudonym Riverbend documented the war from her home, and told the story with her blog, Baghdad Burning, which was made into two books. Monday she posted her first new item in months, following her families heartbreaking decision to leave Baghdad for the safety of Syria.

The first weeks here were something of a cultural shock. It has taken me these last three months to work away certain habits I’d acquired in Iraq after the war. It’s funny how you learn to act a certain way and don’t even know you’re doing strange things- like avoiding people’s eyes in the street or crazily murmuring prayers to yourself when stuck in traffic. It took me at least three weeks to teach myself to walk properly again- with head lifted, not constantly looking behind me. …

We live in an apartment building where two other Iraqis are renting. The people in the floor above us are a Christian family from northern Iraq who got chased out of their village by Peshmerga and the family on our floor is a Kurdish family who lost their home in Baghdad to militias and were waiting for immigration to Sweden or Switzerland or some such European refugee haven.

The first evening we arrived, exhausted, dragging suitcases behind us, morale a little bit bruised, the Kurdish family sent over their representative – a 9 year old boy missing two front teeth, holding a lopsided cake, “We’re Abu Mohammed’s house- across from you- mama says if you need anything, just ask- this is our number. Abu Dalia’s family live upstairs, this is their number. We’re all Iraqi too… Welcome to the building.”

I cried that night because for the first time in a long time, so far away from home, I felt the unity that had been stolen from us in 2003.

The U.S. in Iraq

A State Department investigation into the department’s use of security contractors is anything but glowing, Spencer Ackerman writes for TPM Muckracker.

The U.S. Special Inspector General in Iraq released a new report titled Controls Over Unliquidated Obligations in the Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund.

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