Daily Archive for February 25th, 2008

Turkey, Kurds and the Iraq oil hype…

Plus:
*Brits’ new Basra economic chief acknowledges concern over denationalization of natural resources
*KRG Pres. Massoud Barzani’s Baghdad beef
*Baiji-Baghdad-Anbar railway reconstruction begins
*Much, much more…

Fears continue, as does the Turkish invasion into northern Iraq, that the latter will cut supplies of oil in Iraq, thus buoying the price of oil.

While Agence France-Presse reports of worries over OPEC production cuts, violence in northern Iraq, while deadly and potentially a powder keg of fighting, will likely not affect oil.

The fighting itself isn’t near the northwest corner of Iraqi Kurdistan, where the pipeline cuts through as it crosses to the Turkish territory. And besides, the pipeline, which sees about 300,000 barrels per day of Kirkuk oil heading to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, has only been in real operation since the end of last summer. From March 2003 until then, insurgent attacks deep in Iraqi territory kept it offline.

“The incursion will not have any impact on crude pumping because the route of the pipelines does not pass through the conflict area,” the official at the Northern Oil Company told Reuters.

“Turkish military operations will not affect pumping oil through this pipeline as both Iraqi and Turkish governments are keen not to halt it,” said Assem Jihad, a ministry spokesman, Selcan Hacaoglu reports for The Associated Press.

Of course, predicting geopolitical consequences is never exact, hence the run on oil prices whenever a large firecracker goes off (editorial exaggeration), and predicting events in Iraq is even harder. But as Ben Lando reported for United Press International last October, when Turkey lined up troops along the northern Iraq border, rest assured, if Iraq can pump Kirkuk oil and protect pipelines from Sunni insurgents, the oil will flow.

There would be concerns among Iraqis about multinationals exploiting natural resources, acknowledges Michael Wareing, who heads the new Basra Development Commission, David Smith reports in The Observor. Western oil giants are poised to enter southern Iraq to tap the country’s vast reserves, despite the ongoing threat of violence, according to Gordon Brown’s business emissary to the country.

Iraqi Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani is none too pleased with Baghdad, as you can tell from this interview with Kuwait Times.
He defended the KRG oil deals, claiming the Constitution backs its moves, and made some interesting innuendos on consequences for not adhering to the Constitution:

“As long as Iraq is abiding by the current constitution, we are bound by a united Iraq.” …

“We have not taken any steps that contradict the Iraqi constitution. We are ready to review any step which is contrary to the constitution,” he added.

The region has continued to award oil exploration and development contracts to foreign oil companies despite the federal oil ministers long held objections. Barzani commented, “Regrettably, the position of the oil minister is a political position and not a legislative one. So we do not recognize the decisions or orders which he is making that are not in line with the constitution and the laws of the state.” He furthered, “We urge the oil minister to correct his position because according to the constitution, oil and gas is owned by all Iraqis and the revenues should be divided between all the Iraqi people justly. Everyone agrees on that principle.” In the end he said, “We hope to gain a mutual understanding. We have a constitution, and it will be the judge.” …

“The stalling of the hydrocarbon law is not from our side but from the federal government. Let this law go to the Parliament in order to implement it, and end the problem.” …

“Kirkuk is an Iraqi city with a Kurdish identity and must go back to the region of Kurdistan in accordance with the constitution.” …

Iraq is revamping a railway enabling the shipment of oil and other goods from Baiji to Baghdad and on to Anbar province, UPI reports.

An ethnic political dispute is heating up in this largely Kurdish town where the country’s northern oil industry is based, as Turkish troops pursue Kurdish rebels inside Iraq, Gina Chon reports in The Wall Street Journal. Kirkuk is home to ethnic Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen, all of whom lay claim to the area. A referendum scheduled for June to determine whether residents want to become part of Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish enclave in the north could exacerbate tense relations between the ethnic groups that could possibly turn violent.

An Iraqi specialist says the Iran-Iraq war and ensuing disputes stopped the dredging of the Shatt al-Arab waterway, and silt deposits are ruining the Iraqi side of the shore, the U.N. humanitarian bureau news service reports. The two sides meeting last week in Tehran agreed to address this and other issues, Ben Lando reported Thursday.

Families paint troubling picture of Kurdish jails while allegations of torture and fears of imprisonment concern advocates, Leila Fadel reports for McClatchy Newspapers. A picture of a young bearded man hangs in Rabia Fatah’s living room, and when she looks at it, she shakes with sobs. Her son, Dana Ahmed Abdul Rahman, has been in prison for a year and a half. She doesn’t know why. She doesn’t know when he’ll be released.

The Iraq Press Roundup, an inside view of Iraq’s editorial pages, by UPI’s Hiba Dawood.

A federal grand jury in Richmond, Va., has subpoenaed at least three witnesses in the investigation of alleged misconduct by Stuart Bowen, the special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction, which sources say appears to focus allegations that Bowen and his deputy, Ginger Cruz, improperly read office e-mails of their employees, Dan Friedman reports for Congress Daily. The subpoenas, which summoned the witnesses to appear before the grand jury in March, indicate prosecutors in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Western District of Virginia, working with the FBI, are making progress in their probe of Bowen, who has served in his post since October 2004.