Iraq Oil Report

Plus:
*The State of Basra
*Crescent Petroleum sponsors Iraqi universities in oil confab
*Oil deals unlikely for months
*Iraq war drains U.S. budget for fuel
*Iraqi parties prevent ban on honor killing
*Japan-Iraq collaboration

A lull in fighting in the oil-rich province of Basra allowed oil field workers to return to work, ensuring output of around 2 million barrels per day continued without disruption, Reuters reports.

For more on this threat, United Press International’s Ben Lando spoke Friday with the leader of the oil workers Friday.

Three Iraqi universities sent delegates to the GetEnergy 2008 summit in London this month, courtesy of Crescent Petroleum, UPI reports. Crescent, based in the United Arab Emirates, is among the international oil companies hoping to land a deal in Iraq’s oil and gas sector. The companies have provided free training and studies to Iraq’s Oil Ministry. Crescent and Dana Gas, of which Crescent is a major shareholder, are developing gas prospects in Iraqi Kurdistan. While companies that have signed deals with the Kurdistan Regional Government have been threatened with blacklisting by Baghdad, Crescent appears untouched.

Iraq and five oil majors are unlikely to sign service deals to boost output from some of the country’s largest fields before June after a slowdown in negotiations, Simon Webb reports for Reuters.

Oil giants line up to claim their slice of Iraq’s riches, writes Patrick Sherwin, senior consultant in the financial services practice at Control Risks.

After invading one of the most petroleum-rich countries on earth, the U.S. military is running on empty. Today the average American G.I. in Iraq uses about 20.5 gallons of fuel every day, more than double the daily volume consumed by U.S. soldiers in Iraq in 2004, Robert Bryce writes in the cover story for The American Conservative. Thus, in order to secure the third-richest country on the planet, the U.S. military is burning enormous quantities of petroleum. And nearly every drop of that fuel is imported into Iraq.

If the US’s principal interests in Iraq can be summarized in one word - oil - then the EU’s can be summarized in two: oil and gas, David Cronin writes in The Guardian.

The State of Basra

Fighting has lulled in Basra, following a deal struck by Moqtada Sadr and Iraqi Parliamentarians – in Iran, Leila Fadel reports for McClatchy Newspapers. Sadr ordered the Mahdi Army to only fire if attacked, Erica Goode and James Glanz report for The New York Times.

The clash between Iraq’s security forces and the Mahdi Army, mostly, left hundreds dead and the survivors needing food and water, Aljazeera reports.

The U.N. humanitarian office says there’s a fuel shortage as well.

A major reason for the defeat of the Iraqi army is the unpopularity of the country’s leaders. Many of the soldiers switched sides, The Times reports, and have been fired, Azzaman reports.

Aljazeera has a profile of the Mahdi Army.

Aref Mohammed for Reuters reports on Basra when the dust clears and ongoing violence in Baghdad, as the Green Zone gets pummeled still.

More narrative of the fight:

19 Tense Hours in Sadr City Alongside the Mahdi Army, by The Washington Post’s Sudarsan Raghavan

The biggest surprise about the raging battles that erupted last week in southern Iraq was not that the combatants were fellow Shiites, but that it took this long, Ned Parker writes for the Los Angeles Times.

All explanations are possible for the current fighting in Basra, the largest city in southern Iraq situated in an area which floats on massive oil riches, Fatih Abdulsalam writes for Azzaman. But the reality of the situation which tells volumes about what is happening is the fact that war, in the fullest sense of the word, has been raging without interruption in Iraq for the past five years.

The country’s powerful Islamic parties and leaders are resisting reform of a law that sanctions lenient punishments for those found guilty of so-called honor killings, Basim al-Shara’ reports for the Institute for War & Peace Reporting. Article 111 of the Iraqi penal code - passed in 1969 - allows a lesser punishment for the killing of women if the male defendants are found to have had “honorable motives.”

Acting Minister of State for Women’s Affairs Narmin Othman’s initiative is primarily backed by secularists and has received the support of about 60 members of parliament from the secular Iraqi List and the Kurdish Alliance, according to Iraqi List MP Maysoon al-Damalogy.

However, representatives from the Shia United Iraqi Alliance - the most powerful bloc in parliament, led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki - and the Sunni-led Iraqi Accord Front both oppose the legislation.

Japan-Iraq relations: investment and presence

The following is the latest newsletter published by The Shingetsu Institute for the Study of Japanese-Islamic Relations:

THE GSDF LEGACY IN SAMAWA

It may surprise you to hear that the Shingetsu Institute hasn’t issued a report on recent Japanese activities vis-a-vis Iraq since late November of last year. That’s a four-month gap! The main reason we haven’t talked about it is because the Japanese media and MOFA aren’t saying too much about it either. For example, the ongoing ASDF mission in Iraq has been virtually invisible as far as I’ve been able to discover. My hunch is that most of the Japanese public has now forgotten all about it. Out of sight, out of mind.

Yesterday, however, Kyodo News was kind enough to produce a follow-up piece on GSDF reconstruction projects in Samawa. For the entire period that the GSDF was stationed in its base near Samawa, the Koizumi Administration and its camp followers repeatedly insisted that their presence was needed there in order to carry out ‘humanitarian and reconstruction support activities.’

It is not easy to evaluate clearly the degree to which the local community in Samawa really benefitted from the GSDF activities. During the GSDF deployment itself, most news reports suggested that a majority of the local people were pleased to have the Japanese among them as they imagined that their presence would signal major improvements in the local economy and because the Japanese troops didn’t shoot anybody. On the other hand, there was a minority — apparently affiliated with the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr — who did not welcome the GSDF on the Iraqi nationalist grounds that they were allies of the American occupiers. These people fired mortars at the GSDF base and created a sense of threat, but never actually wounded any Japanese soldiers. The fact that the GSDF was able to complete their 2 1/2 years in Iraq without taking any casualties can be regarded as a success for the political supporters of the mission. They seem to have benefitted from a combination of careful planning, risk-avoiding local strategies, and simple good luck.

The total amount of money that Japan spent on Iraqi reconstruction is impressive. Tokyo pledged US$1.5 billion in grant aid and US$3.5 billion in loans at the Madrid Conference of October 2003. Since that time, MOFA has been announcing various projects on which this money would be spent. MOFA says that the US$1.5 billion in grants has already been completely distributed, and that in fact an additional US$105 million in emergency grant aid was provided to Iraq over the course of 2007 (see Shingetsu Newsletter No. 529). Beyond all of this, Tokyo has pledged to forgive 80% of Iraq’s debts from the Saddam Husain era, which totaled about US$7.6 billion (see Shingetsu Newsletter No. 123). I’m not an economist, but I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the real cost of the Iraq adventure to the Japanese taxpayer is now well over US$10 billion.

At any rate, the point of the Kyodo News report released yesterday is that for all of this investment, the real improvements in Samawa may not be so great. As they put it, ‘there are many examples of mismanaged support.’ One of the key problems seems to be that the local Iraqis don’t have the technical training necessary to complete and operate these projects. (In the 1980s, Iraq was one of the most sophisticated countries in the developing world in this respect.)

Muhammad Jordan, chairman of the construction committee of the al-Muthanna provincial council, stated that ‘it is strange to rely on others to rebuild your home. The Japanese did their best to assist the al-Muthanna people, but the problems were with those (Iraqi) people.’ Saad Rahim Salman, a manager at a large local power plant said, ‘It is the first time for the Iraqi people to embark on such a large-size project from scratch. There are no foreign engineers… There are many holidays in Islam.’

The Kyodo News report continues by noting that ‘there are precision medical devices that cannot be used due to a lack of parts, and power generators abandoned because of the delivery of secondhand ones.’

Some local people, like schoolteacher Salah Khlaif, supported the GSDF mission: ‘The withdrawal was too early. I wanted Japan to stay longer.’ Others, like the unemployed Haidar Nassir, were not impressed with the help from Tokyo: ‘The Japanese support has left only vulgar rich people and corruption behind.’

Returning to the crucial power plant project mentioned above, an engineer at the plant referred to the fact that construction has been well behind schedule. Construction began in April 2006 and was scheduled for completion last November. The new target is June of this year. The engineer explained, ‘The appearance is 90% complete, but the core part is still only 60% complete.’

Hmm. So it appears attractive on the face of it, but is hollow at the core, eh?

That’s not a bad metaphor for Tokyo’s entire Iraq War policy.

THE ‘STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP’ AND THE RECONCILIATION DIALOGUE

Did Japan Focus and the Shingetsu Newsletter change Japanese policy on Iraq? I don’t know. But since the time I wrote my critique of the concept of the ‘long-term and strategic partnership’ between Japan and Iraq the slogan seems to have disappeared from MOFA statements. Perhaps my essay caused them to reevaluate their message? Or perhaps they have dropped the slogan for reasons entirely unrelated to my essay in Shingetsu Newsletter No. 807? Or is the slogan still alive, but they just haven’t mentioned it in the last four months?

This past week Tokyo hosted the ‘Second Seminar on National Reconciliation of Iraq.’ The program saw invitations to thirteen Iraqi MPs and others (eleven actually attended) who were Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish. The only participant who was named in the press was Kurdish parliamentarian Alaa al-Talabani. As the official MOFA statement put it: ‘The Seminar is held based on the consideration that the promotion of national reconciliation among different ethnic/sectarian groups is essential for a solid stabilization of Iraq, while the current security situation in Iraq showing signs of improvement. It is expected that Japan’s efforts of holding such Seminar would contribute to that end. During the period, the delegation will have meetings with the Japanese Government officials as well as the members of the Japanese parliament. The participants will also discuss among themselves on the current issues of Iraq such as Oil and Gas Law, Amendment of the Constitution and Federalism. Further, visit to Hiroshima is planned so that they can share the experiences of Japan’s post-war democratization, peace building, and reconstruction.’

However, the MOFA statement said nothing about the ‘long-term and strategic partnership’ between Japan and Iraq as we might have expected on such an occasion.

A somewhat similar program occurred in February. Upon the request, apparently, of the office of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and the Iraqi Foreign Ministry (both offices currently held by Kurds), MOFA and JICA offering training programs for Iraqi diplomats.

Again, on that occasion, there was no mention of the ‘long-term and strategic partnership.’

It thus seems that the ‘long-term’ partnership may have thus lasted all of eight months.

RECENT JAPANESE AID TO IRAQ

In the past four months, most reports on Japan-Iraq relations have concerned aid programs. The following is a round-up of both public and private aid stories:

– In late December, Tokyo donated through the UNHCR 1,000 tents for Iraqi refugees.

– At the beginning of this year, it was announced that an unnamed Japanese signed an agreement of cooperation with Iraq’s Electricity Ministry. The company was to rehabilitate the gas-powered Taji electrical station located in northern Baghdad. Apparently, the awarding of this contract to the unnamed Japanese company was tied to a grant that Tokyo offered to the Electricity Ministry.

– In January, it was announced that the next round of reconstruction loans, part of the US$3.5 billion mentioned above, would be targeted on repair of the Al-Musaib thermal power station in suburban Baghdad, the restoration of tanker mooring facilities off Basra, and the construction of roads and bridges near Samawa.

– In February, the Yomiuri reported about a Yokohama-based NPO that was selling chocolate in the run-up to St. Valentine’s Day in order to raise money for medicine and classes for Iraqi children.

– Also in February, MOFA donated almost US$19 million through the UNDP for the establishment of a maternity and children’s hospital in Falluja. This project seems to have a close relationship to the activities of the Hashida Memorial Mohammed Fund run by the wife of slain Japanese journalist Shinsuke Hashida.

– This month, MOFA offered almost US$30,000 for another maternity and children’s hospital in Sadr City, Baghdad.

MOFA PRESS SECRETARY STATEMENTS

In the past six months or so, the MOFA press secretary has offered only these two official statements on internal Iraqi issues:

Statement by the Press Secretary on the Adoption of the Accountability and Justice Law by the Iraqi Council of Representatives
January 13, 2008

On January 12, the Iraqi Council of Representatives adopted the Accountability and Justice Law. The Government of Japan welcomes this as an important progress towards the national reconciliation of Iraq.

The Law enables former Ba’ath party members who were purged from public offices since 2003 to reassume a public position. The Government of Japan expects that this will contribute to gathering momentum for the progress of the national reconciliation and to further improving the security situation in Iraq.

The Government of Japan has been rendering assistance to Iraqi national reconciliation endeavors by, in particular, hosting the Iraqi National Reconciliation Seminar, and it is determined to continue to assist the efforts of Iraq. The Government of Japan will also actively support Iraqi economic reconstruction by implementing various economic assistance projects.

Statement by the Press Secretary on Consecutive Suicide Bomb Attacks in Baghdad, Iraq
February 3, 2008

Japan greatly feels shocked and indignant over the consecutive suicide bomb attacks in Baghdad, Iraq, which caused many deaths and injuries on February 1. Terrorism cannot be justified for any reason, and Japan reiterates its firm condemnation of these atrocious acts of terrorism that victimize many innocent people.

Japan expresses its deepest sympathy for those who have been killed by terrorist attacks, including this time, and condolences to the families of the victims. It also expresses its heartfelt sympathy toward the injured and prays for their early recovery.

Japan expects that the ethnic and religious groups will show mutual respect, and continue making efforts toward nation-building while promoting national reconciliation. Japan will proactively support such effort of Iraqi people.
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