A goody and Abadi

The Economist reports:

They said it would be over by Christmas. Now Haider al-Abadi, Iraq’s prime minister, is suggesting that the battle for Mosul could last until Easter. For almost a month his forces had stalled on what was supposed to be the easier eastern bank of Iraq’s second city. And the costs have been gruelling. A fifth of Iraq’s elite force has reportedly fallen in the assault. With the support of more American special forces, Mr Abadi has launched a second phase, taking the city’s industrial zone. Progress is being made. But what Iraqi soldiers clear by day, Islamic State (IS) fighters often regain by night, thanks to a warren of tunnels under the front lines.

Across Iraq the insurgency has a new lease of life. The sickening rhythm of suicide bombs in Shia suburbs of Baghdad and southern Iraq is quickening again. In Anbar and Salahuddin, provinces long since reclaimed by the government, IS is also flexing its muscles. On January 2nd it won control of a police station in Samarra for several hours and it cut briefly the Baghdad to Mosul road. It is putting out lights in Diyala. “It is not an organisation that is close to collapse,” says an analyst in touch with people in Mosul.

The prolonged campaign carries political costs for Mr Abadi, who had sought to turn himself from a bumbling office-holder into a victorious commander by donning military fatigues. Should there be further mishaps, Mr Abadi’s rivals in Baghdad will be waiting to pounce. Among them is his predecessor, Nouri al-Maliki, and his cohorts in Iraq’s assortment of predominantly Shia militias, which are collectively known as the Hashd al-Shaabi, or popular mobilisation forces (PMF). As the government-led advance on Mosul slows, they are calling for the deployment of Iranian-backed brigades. So short of men are Iraq’s army and police that even some American commanders now welcome the use of these auxiliaries.