Top Energy Stories

The recently discovered Eridu oil field could soon be heading for commercial production. Iraq's Oil Ministry and Russia’s Lukoil have reached a provisional agreement to target an initial rate of 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2024, rising to 250,000 bpd by 2027, according to the DQOC and industry officials. Discovery of the field was announced in 2019 but there has been little new information, until now, on the status of negotiations to move to the development phase. The two sides still have to agree on amendments to the original contract before the project can move forward, though. For more details, read the full story on Iraq Oil Report.

New security coordination in northern Iraq could help deal a blow to an insurgency that has threatened the local population, security forces, and energy infrastructure. The federal government and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have established three joint coordination centers in an effort to share intelligence and close security gaps currently being exploited by armed groups and criminal gangs. Read the full story on Iraq Oil Report.

National news

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kahdimi's power was put to the test this week by the arrest of Qassim Musleh, who is the head of Anbar operations for the government's al-Hashid al-Shabi (Popular Mobilization) program, which is an umbrella organization for paramilitary groups, and who also leads the Iran-backed Liwa Tafuf faction. Musleh is accused of involvement in the killing of prominent Karbala activist Ihab al-Qazni on May 9, according to Suadad al-Salhy, reporting for Middle East Eye. The last time Kadhimi's government made a high-profile arrest of Hashid figures, in June 2020, it led to an embarrassing defeat when paramilitary forces deployed to Baghdad's Green Zone and secured the release of their comrades, highlighting the fragility of the state and the extent to which the prime minister is commander in chief in name only. This time, Hashid fighters looked to the same playbook, “roam[ing] the capital’s Green Zone armed to the teeth,” according to Salhy. But the immediate outcome was somewhat better for Kadhimi. "The IZ was strongly protected in anticipation of a forceful militia reaction," writes Michael Knights for the Washington Institute. "Although some fighters attempted to flex their muscles inside the IZ — where militias are permitted to maintain a presence under various guises — they were not reinforced from outside. The perimeter held, and both the prime minister and the prisoner were secured." Kadhimi released a statement calling the show of force a "serious violation of the Iraqi constitution and the laws in force."

Security forces killed two protesters during a demonstration calling for an end to the killing of activists. During the march on Tuesday, young demonstrators held up posters asking “who killed me?” But Iraqi activists know who is killing them, according to Jane Arraf, reporting for the New York Times: Iran-backed armed groups. The problem is that the killers are never punished. The protest was smaller than organizers had hoped for because so many were afraid, according to one protester. A second protester told Arraf he had been threatened by a group of fighters three days before the demonstration.

Activists and security forces are unhappy with the repatriation of 100 families from al-Hol camp, in northeastern Syria, to Jedah, camp near the town of Qayarah in Ninewa province, writes Farid Abdul-Wahid and Samya Kullab for the AP. The families have lived in al-Hol camp since the defeat of IS in 2019. Al-Hol is home to almost 70,000 people displaced by the fight to defeat IS in Syria; the camp also holds 10,000 foreigners in a more secure complex, and many remain die-hard IS supporters. A local activist told the reporters that the repatriation will make Qayarah less secure, and complained that security at Jedah camp is lacking. Ninewa Joint Operations Command also protested their arrival, according to the report.

Iraq's Water Crisis

Iraq's Ministry of Water Resources is warning of a crisis: the Tigris and Euphrates rivers typically provide most of Iraq’s freshwater supply, but they are at historically low levels because of both scant rainfall and snowmelt in southern Turkey and because of Turkish dams. The declining water levels mean huge losses for farmers, worsening unemployment, and the potential for more social and political instability, according to Sinan Mahmoud and Robert Tollast, writing for the National. Dams in Iran have also shrunk the Tigris tributaries, they write, cutting off the flow to the Diyala River and decreasing the flow of the Lower Zaab River by 70 percent.

The search for an endangered otter highlights water woes in southern Iraq. There are thought to be between 200 to 900 smooth-coated otters left in the marshes of Chibaish, according to Samya Kullab, reporting for the AP, but water levels are “dangerously unpredictable” and illegal fishing and neglect are driving their decline. The otters play a key role in the ecosystem; their disappearance is "putting at risk the centuries-oil Iraqi marsh communities that depend on it." One conservationist told Kullab that water rates from both the Tigris and Euphrates are just half of what they were last year, threatening not just the otters but rural communities across Iraq.

Commentary and Analysis

Iraqi clerics have joined forces with civil society activists to push for reforms and challenge Iran’s ideological and political influence in Iraq, writes Geneive Abdo for The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. Abdo writes that the “mosque-street alliance" seeks change via several channels, including parliamentary elections this year. Meetings between Iraqi activists and clerics in Baghdad, Najaf and Nassiriya began in October 2019, she writes: “Clerics who either participated in the meetings or later became aligned with the demonstrators said that they believed it was logical for the hawza to support the protest movement.” But others believe that the alliance is a “marriage of convenience” and that the protesters know the clerics have political influence, and vice versa.

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