Top Energy StoriesIraq’s nationwide oil exports rose to 3.678 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, compared with 3.523 million bpd in October, with federal exports accounting for all of the 155,000 bpd monthly increase. Iraq's higher exports in November reflect its increasing OPEC quota. OPEC-plus ministers met on Dec. 2 and agreed to continue implementing an agreement to raise collective production by 400,000 bpd per month. Read the full story on Iraq Oil Report. 
Iraq might have its eye on OPEC's secretary general post. The group's current leader, Mohammed Barkindo, serves until the summer of 2022. Kuwait has nominated Haitham al-Ghais to replace him, with the support of Saudi Arabia. But at an administrative meeting on Dec. 1, Iraq asked for more time for other potential candidates to be identified, "hinting that it too might submit a nomination," according to Argus. In recent years Iraq has solidified its position as OPEC's second-largest producer, and a serious bid for secretary general could signal an attempt to wield greater influence in the group. Front Lines of Climate ChangeA deterioration in national security as a result of climate change is a major worry for Iraq’s Minister of Environment, Dr. Jassim Abdul Aziz al-Falahi. "We do not have water security. We do not have food security," he told Iraq Oil Report in a recent interview in his office at the Ministry of Environment. "I think these might result in what is called internally displaced populations. It might result in what's called environmental refugees. So it has a great impact on our national security." The minister formed part of Iraq’s delegation to the recent COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, following the country's ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement. He discussed the international climate negotaitions as well as the acute effects of climate change on Iraq; read the full transcript of his interview with Iraq Oil Report. Iraq's rivers could run dry by 2040. That was the stark conclusion of a governmet report released this week, according to Mina Aldroubi, reporting for The National. Severe droughts will affect the country by 2025, the report said, with the Euphrates almost completely drying up towards the south, and the Tigris turning into a watercourse with limited resources. “A strategic plan made by the Ministry of Water Resources identified measures to confront this deficit, which is the modernising and readjusting irrigation projects and systems, because the main consumer of water in Iraq is the agricultural sector,” said Aoun Diab, a ministry consultant. The project must be implemented to “save and rationalise large amounts of water". The cost of the project will amount to $50 billion to $70bn, which will take up to 2035 to complete to preserve the areas currently being cultivated, Mr Diab said. However, the ministry does not have the financial resources to carry out this project, so a review will address the issue, he said.
The country is getting hotter. According to the World Bank, Iraq's average temperature is likely to increase by 2 degrees Celcius and rainfall is likely to decline by 9 percent by 2050. The country's agriculture sector is especially in peril. Ahmed Maher reports for The National: Ali Al Lami has served as an environment and climate change adviser to different Iraqi governments and was among the official Iraqi delegation at Cop26. He recalls how Iraq used to be named in Arabic 'Ard Asswad' (the land of blackness) due to its fertile farmlands with the annual overflow of the Tigris and the Euphrates depositing thick layers of silt and clay on Iraq's vast floodplains. “The seasonal rain has failed in recent years compared to the past decades. I’m not exaggerating when I say that we have three seasons of summer today, as winter, spring and autumn have become very short. I would say drought has become the biggest threat to Iraq and its food security today,” Mr. Al Lami told The National.
More National NewsIraq's election results have been certified. Shawn Yuan reports for Al Jazeera: Iraq’s independent election commission announced the final results on Tuesday following weeks of recounting and intensified rejection from the losing parties. Five seats changed as a result of the appeals and recounting process in the capital; Baghdad, Nineveh, Erbil, Kirkuk and Basra. ... The election results have reconfirmed the win of al-Sadr, a prominent Shia cleric whose political bloc, the Sadrist Movement, won a total of 73 out of the 329 seats in the incoming parliament. Al-Fatah alliance, whose main components are militia groups affiliated with the Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces, sustained its crushing loss and snatched 17 seats – no change from the initial results, despite its repetitive call for a recount over alleged “fraud”. The number for the Taqadum, or Progress Party-led by current Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi, a Sunni – remained the same, 37 seats. Former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law party lost two seats and will have 33 in parliament. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) captured 31 seats, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) received 18.
The UN says Iraq's elections were fair. The biggest losers in Iraq's October elections have made allegations of major fraud, but those claims appear to be unsubstantiated. Hassan Ali Ahmed reports for Al-Monitor: The head of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, assured Security Council members and Iraqi voters Nov. 23 that parliamentary elections were conducted in a fair and free manner. "The October elections were evaluated as being sound in general," Hennis-Plasschaert said in the briefing, indicating there is no evidence of widespread fraud. ... On Nov. 19, Hennis-Plasschaert had met with the members of the Coordination Framework at Hakim’s home to hear their objections and to give them a chance to present their evidence in order to back their claims of election fraud. The militias' media claimed that Hennis-Plasschaert vowed to voice their complaints before the UN and the Security Council. However, what she has reported in her recent briefing shows nothing supporting such claims. She instead reaffirmed "as stated by the Iraqi judiciary, there is no evidence of systemic fraud." In a hint to the framework members, she also noted, “While losing seats can be difficult to digest, it is important for any party in any democracy to examine the reasons and to learn for future elections.”
Who will succeed Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani? Hassan al-Mustafa reports for Al-Monitor: It appears that the sudden death of Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Mohammed Saeed al-Hakim, who was the most likely candidate to succeed Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani as the highest Shiite reference, prompted scholars at the hawza (seminary) in the city of Najaf to think seriously about a “post-Sistani” phase. This also prompted 72-year-old Sheikh Mohammed Baqir al-Irawani to open an official office in Najaf, as he seems to be preparing himself to be ones of the religious references for Shiites after Sistani, who is 92 years old, dies. Opening an office to receive scholars in Najaf is a significant step in declaring the religious authority position. Irawani teaches one of the largest classes at the Najaf hawza, with about 600 scholars studying at the highest level of religious studies (Kharij). ... He is influenced by his teacher, Abu al-Qasim al-Khoei, especially by the latter’s position rejecting clerics’ involvement in direct political action. This means that if he were to ascend to the Shiite religious leadership, he would have an independent and traditional leadership that is not subject to political influence. This, however, does not mean that he lacks a sense of administrative or political awareness.
Investigators have released new details about the Nov. 7 attack on Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. Hassan Ali Ahmed reports for Al-Monitor: [Iraqi national security adviser Qasim] Araji disclosed that two explosive-laden drones packed with Composition C-4 targeted the prime minister's residence in the fortified Green Zone in Baghdad in the early hours of Nov. 7. Initially, the first drone aimed its explosives at the flat roof, only to be followed by the second drone immediately targeting the entry of the courtyard. This style of attack was intended to strike Kadhimi with the second drone while he was fleeing the scene through the entry, the report noted. ... The committee did not point fingers at any party, as Araji explained that it takes more time to conclude the investigation and the case will remain open until the perpetrators are arrested. Yesterday, the leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Qais Khazali, who also is one of the suspected parties involved in the assassination, said in a live TV speech that “the assassination is nothing but a fake operation."
Commentary and AnalysisIs there rule of law in Iraq? Belkis Wille investigates the aftermath of the killing of two journalists in Basra, Ahmed Abdul Samad and Safaa Ghali, on Jan. 10, 2020. The Basra Criminal Court tried Hamza Kadhim al-Aidani for the murder, resulting in a conviction that many pointed to as a rare moment of accountability. But some previously unreported revelations from the trial reveal the systemic impunity that allows armed groups to get away with murder, including multiple other people likely responsible for the death of Samad and Ghali. Wille writes for Foreign Policy in Focus: Two people who attended [the trial] said that al-Aidani, a Basra police commissioner, admitted that he was also a member of an abusive Popular Mobilization Forces unit formally under the control of the prime minister. He said he fought with the group to retake the city of Fallujah from the Islamic State (ISIS) in 2016. He admitted that he was a member of a so-called “death squad” and was involved in the killing of the two journalists, the sources said. He said he and team members used the local PMF Commission (the PMFs’ governing body) office in Basra to plan the killings and hide their cars and weapons after the fact. The court witnesses told Human Rights Watch that Al-Aidani told the judge the police had not arrested the head of his squad within the PMF unit but instead allowed him to flee the country. This was the man, he said, who killed the journalists in front of him. He said that the man told the team that the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had issued a fatwa (a religious legal ruling) that journalists covering protests with calls against Iran and the PMF, and those inciting the protests, should be killed. ... He said they targeted Samad because he had covered a protest on December 13, 2019, on a street that the PMF had renamed Khamenei Street in 2019. During the protest, demonstrators burned a large picture of Khamenei that the PMF had hung up on the street. Samad, in his coverage, asked viewers why the street was not instead renamed after an Iraqi leader.
| 