Top Stories

The newly minted Iraqi National Oil Company (INOC) is moving to join French oil major TotalEnergies as a financial partner in the recently signed mega-projects for the development of crude oil, natural gas, and water supply in southern Iraq. Iraq's Cabinet decided Tuesday to approve the prospective investment. The move could help to further establish INOC — which has so far existed mainly on paper — as a discrete entity from the Oil Ministry, while also raising the likelihood that the Total deal, signed just a month before national elections, will survive the transition to the next government. Read the full story on Iraq Oil Report.

The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) is making an unprecedented effort to influence and participate in Iraq's national elections this Sunday. The Kurdish separatist group and U.S.-designated terrorist organization is backing candidates in four electoral districts across Sulaimaniya and Kirkuk provinces. And tensions are running especially high in a Ninewa electoral district that includes Sinjar, where PKK-backed candidates are directly competing with the Iraqi Kurdistan's ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) for three seats. One major confrontation came last week, when KDP candidates were prevented from entering Sinjar by security forces that the KDP accuses of being PKK proxies. The PKK's campaign could negatively impact the electoral performance of the KDP in Ninewa, and appears to be raising tensions that have already led to deadly skirmishes, including in areas near oil infrastructure. Read the full story on Iraq Oil Report.

Production has halted at the Qayarah heavy oil field in Ninewa province, just four months after it was partially brought back online following a 14-month-long shut-in. The outage at Qayarah, which had been producing between 8,000 and 10,000 barrels per day (bpd), does not make a significant dent in Iraq's overall crude output, which has been rising steadily in recent months. But it does appear to represent a setback both for Angola's Sonangol, the operator of the field, and for the local economy, which has depended on the field and nearby refinery as a source of employment and oil products. Read the full story on Iraq Oil Report.

Iraq's Electricity Ministry is a den of corruption. In an investigation for the AP, Samya Kullab reports on the system of shadow contracts and kickbacks that have fed Iraq's patronage system while undermining progress to meet the electricity demands of a growing population. As the country approaches national elections, Kullab's investigation highlights what will be at stake when political leaders begin negotiating over how to divvy up government positions in forming a new government. For many political actors, power is primarily an opportunity for graft.

Iraq by the Numbers

Iraq's nationwide oil exports increased by 130,000 bpd in September, a sign that the country continues to bring supply back online in response to easing OPEC-plus quota policies. The federal government's oil sales averaged 3.081 million bpd, up from 3.054 million bpd in August, for a total of $6.771 billion in revenue, according to preliminary figures released by the Oil Ministry. Exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) averaged 463,000 bpd, up from 360,000 bpd in August, according to an industry official. Those oil sales generated about $864 million in revenue, according to an Iraq Oil Report estimate based on historical pricing data. Read the full story on Iraq Oil Report.

The Iraq Oil and Financial Dataset gives subscribers hundreds of datapoints covering both federal Iraq and Kurdistan, updated monthly, including:

• Production data gathered independently from every producing field
• Export data, including pricing
• Domestic consumption
• Oil product imports and exports
• Government spending and budget execution

Click here for a free sample.

Iraq's Oct. 10 Elections

Reuters: Who's competing in Iraq's elections? An overview of the main groups competing for the 329 seats in Iraq's Parliament.

Jane Arraf for the New York Times: In Iraqi elections, guns and money still dominate politics

The contest is likely to return the same main players to power, including a movement loyal to the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, a coalition connected to militias backed by Iran, and the dominant Kurdish party in the semiautonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Other leading figures include a Sunni businessman under U.S. sanctions for corruption.

In between are glimmers of hope that a reformed election law and a protest movement that prompted these elections a year early could bring some candidates who are not tied to traditional political parties into Iraq’s dysfunctional Parliament.

But persuading disillusioned voters that it is worth casting their ballots will be a challenge in a country where corruption is so rampant that many government ministries are more focused on bribes than providing public services. Militias and their political wings are often seen as serving Iran’s interests more than Iraq’s.

Almost no parties have put forth any political platforms. Instead they are appealing to voters on the basis of religious, ethnic or tribal loyalty.

AFP: In Iraq, big neighbour Iran faces growing backlash

As Iraq heads to the polls on October 10, a spotlight has fallen on the outsized influence neighbouring Iran wields -- but also on the growing popular backlash against it.

The parliamentary vote is being held early as a concession to a pro-democracy movement that railed against an Iraqi political system it decried as inept, corrupt and beholden to Iran.

"One of the more alarming things for Iran in Iraq right now is the huge sense of public dissatisfaction towards Iran," said political scientist Marsin Alshamary.

Middle East Eye: Accusations fly as fractured Tishreen movement seeks votes

Few would deny that the Tishreen protests have had an impact on Iraqi politics, even if they never achieved their principle aim of entirely culling the Iraqi political class.

Sunday’s elections are set to be held under a new electoral system that will see the number of electoral districts increased to 83, rather than the 18 in previous elections. Districts will now vote for individuals rather than parties, though candidates still have party backing, unless they stand as independents.

The change was a key demand of the Tishreen protesters, though it never quite went as far as they wanted. “We were aiming to have a political candidate system, not lists of political parties,” said Ali Khrypt, who said he wanted a system where “each candidate stands under his own name”.

... The development of parties from the Tishreen movement has provoked enormous controversy among activists: for some, agreeing to work within the hated political system is tantamount to betrayal or, at the very least, opening the movement up to being co-opted.

For others, it’s simply common sense. What, after all, was the point in the seminars, discussions, protests and literature that came from the movement if not to put it towards political action?

Renad Mansour for Chatham House: Iraqi elections still do not deliver democracy

Part of the failure to bridge the gap between existing political leaders and protesters has been a flawed assumption that all protesters and disillusioned Iraqis are organizationally united.

But the protests have not represented a single movement. Instead, they represent many micro-movements of aggrieved citizens who do not work together in a coherent way. Cherry-picking a handful of protesters or activists from these many movements to establish a dialogue with the elite has not worked. It has been rushed.

Instead, before any engagement with the existing elite and system, more focus needs to be placed on bringing together protest leaders and other aggrieved groups in society to establish common frameworks aimed at tackling the structural problems in Iraqi state-society relations.

Similarly, the few independent reformists who remain in the system are unable to bring about change alone. Efforts can be aimed at strengthening the connective tissues among these reformists, who often feel like institutional islands surrounded by the corruption that underlines Iraqi governance.

... The protests that have erupted have provided an opportunity for the country’s burgeoning youth population to have a say, because elections never improved their lives. Yet, both Iraqi officials and international actors continue to focus not on systematic reform, but rather on elections as the channel to democratize Iraq.

Douglas Ollivant for War on the Rocks: A minor chance for a majority government

In the final days before Iraq’s Oct. 10 parliamentary elections, much speculation has focused not merely on who will win, but on whether the country can then form a majority government. The alternative is another disappointing national unity government under Iraq’s muhassasa system, in which offices are allocated to all political parties in proportion to their share of seats in parliament. This outcome would maximize opportunities for corruption and minimize opportunities for reform, thereby laying the groundwork for further despair, deeper poverty, and even eventual state collapse.

There are a number of factors that will determine whether forming a majority government is possible: the new political environment, the power distribution within Iraq’s three main ethno-sectarian communities, and the political process through which the government is formed. An examination of these factors suggests that while it remains unlikely, there is at least an outside chance that a majority system might emerge that could create a responsible government and begin to rebuild Iraq’s fragile state.

Sign up

Sign up here to receive This Week in Iraq in your inbox.