Spotlight on Basra

Security forces launched a new operation to reverse a trend of violence and lawlessness in Basra. Iraq's oil heartland has recently suffered from intensifying violence involving tribal disputes, criminal gangs, rogue elements of paramilitary groups, and murderous retribution against protesters and civil society activists. “Operation Promise Kept,” which began last Saturday, involves several branches of Iraq's police and armed forces, including Oil Police units tasked with reinforcing energy infrastructure. Security forces also conducted raids in Baghdad and Missan province. For more details on the operation, read the full story on Iraq Oil Report.

Basra also continues to suffer from both water shortages and waterborne diseases. According to Zainab Mehdi, writing for the London School of Economics, the problems result from unregulated pollution, reduced water flows due to upstream damming projects in Turkey, and poorly maintained water-processing facilities. An abundance of the Hornwort plant clogs water pumps and treatment stations, while a 2019 plan by the Ministry of Municipalities, Housing and Public Works to build a seawater desalination plant south of Basra has not gone ahead due to delays in securing a $10 billion loan from the UK. Mahdi urges the Iraqi Ministry of Water Resources to “increase pressure on Turkey to release an equitable share of transboundary water,” and warns that, in the longer term, geopolitical tensions over water could lead to war.

A new refinery in Basra? In a webcast with the Jordan-based Iraqi Business Council this week, Oil Minister Ihsan Ismaael said Iraq is negotiating with the Italian oil company Eni — which currently operates the Zubair oil field — to build a 300,000 barrel per day (bpd) refinery near the field. The refinery deal is hardly a sure thing. Iraq has floated more than a dozen new refinery tenders in recent years, but has consistently failed to attract credible bids because of poorly structured commercial incentives. Former Oil Minister Thamir Ghadhban launched a review of the government's refinery investment framework in 2019, but that effort has not yet produced tangible changes. Without such a policy overhaul, it is unclear where the money might come from to build the prospective Zubair refinery. The Iraqi government's most successful effort to build a new refinery to date is the Karbala refinery project, which is partially constructed but currently stalled — mainly because of a lack of government financing.

Interview of the Week

Basra Governor Assad al-Edani gave an interview to the state-run Iraqiya TV on Sept. 7 in which he addressed recent unrest in Basra. His messaging attempted to strike a balance between defending the rights of protesters and criticizing violence.

All kinds of people can put up my picture with an "X" over it. They can shout, "Down with Assad al-Edani." But I'm telling you, I can still down with him, talk with him, have a discussion. That's not the issue here. He has the right to express his opinion. The one thing that's not allowed is to tear up the city. No one has the right to tear up the city.

Edani claimed that security forces have made progress in identifying those responsible for recent assassinations of protest activists, but declined to provide any details that would begin to establish a measure of public accountability. He did say the assassinations had a “political character,” seemingly suggesting militia involvement. But he also said security considerations prevented him from saying more, which suggests paramilitary groups continue to be able to use intimidation to ensure their own impunity.

Nonetheless, Edani insisted that Basra’s security situation is better now than it has been at many times in the past. And he vehemently denied rumors he has been coopted or intimidated by militias into opposing protesters.

No one can extort me. No one. There's a nice expression I like — and I don't mean to praise myself here — but Basra means date palms. We grew up with date palms. Extortion, as Basrawis, we can't accept it at all, from anyone. Those who grew up with palm trees know how palm trees are. If you try to bend down a palm tree's head, it will come back up and hit you right in the head, and smash your head right open.

Edani, who is a political independent, insisted that he remains popular with many Basrawis, and said this will become clear in the next elections. His nuanced position on protests, and his use of veiled language in talking about militias, suggests that he is unsure of what will come next and is trying to hedge his bets.

National News

Finance Minister Ali Allawi was called before Parliament for questioning. The contentious meeting signaled the beginning of a season of political grandstanding around Iraq's financial crisis and the impending legislation of a new budget law. According to Farhad Alaaldin, the chairman of the Iraqi Advisory Council think tank, MPs pursued an indignant line of questioning: "Why didn’t the government act on its promise to reduce expenses and increase revenues to fill the deficit... instead of borrowing and withdrawing the balance from the reserves of the central bank?" The answer, of course, is that Iraq faces daunting structural barriers to economic reform. On the revenue side, the state gets more than 90 percent of its money from oil sales, which ebb and flow with global prices, over which the government has almost zero control. On the expenditure side, it is rarely possible to make cuts because government spending fuels the patronage systems from which political parties get their funding and power. Allawi promised MPs he would soon deliver a detailed program for economic reform, which is required under an emergency law passed in June to authorize $18 billion worth of government borrowing. But that is unlikely to sit well with Parliament. "What no one has spoken about is that the reform paper will face major obstacles, both within the government and in Parliament, as it will include harsh measures to stop the bleeding and waste of public money," Alaaldin said. "These measures for reform will not help the political forces in their election endeavors, in addition to cutting off the finances that they obtain through the ministries and state institutions."

The U.S. military is reducing its footprint in Iraq. This has been evident for weeks, as the U.S. handed over full control of Camp Taji and other bases to Iraqi security forces. Now U.S. officials and the Iraqi government have confirmed the size of the drawdown, which will bring the number of U.S. troops on the ground from 5,200 to 3,000. “This decision is due to our confidence in the Iraqi security forces’ increased ability to operate independently,” Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. said. But that's not the only reason. The partial withdrawal was an agenda item in Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi's recent meetings at the White House with President Donald Trump, according to AFP, with domestic politics motivating both leaders. Trump is eager to show he has delivered on promises to disentangle the country from foreign wars. Kadhimi is under pressure to show he is pushing back against the U.S. military presence following the U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian Quds Force commander Qassim Soleimani and Iraqi paramilitary leader Abu Mahdi al-Mohandis in January. The double assassination was widely viewed as a serious violation of sovereignty and prompted the Iraqi Parliament to pass a resolution calling on the government to expel foreign forces immediately.

New structures for American military support in Iraq are still taking shape. The U.S.-led coalition has been planning to set up two main advisory centers, in Baghdad and Erbil, from which to share intelligence and plan operations against remnants of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) militant group. But there have been delays. Outgoing coalition spokesperson Col. Myles Caggins told Iraq Oil Report that the Erbil center “is not fully established yet,” in part because “we are waiting to get the different advisors in from different nations, as a result of coronavirus-related travel restrictions and quarantines. However, the leadership is in place: the Italian colonel leading operations at the Erbil center is present in Iraqi Kurdistan, as are personnel from the Netherlands and Germany."

The Dutch government is compensating one Moslawi man who lost his wife, daughter, brother and nephew in an airstrike in 2015, after U.S. intelligence misidentified his home as an IS position. According to Daniel Boffey, writing for The Guardian, Basim Razzo is "believed to be the first civilian awarded compensation by coalition forces" — a “voluntary offer” of nearly €1 million. His story came to prominence after he was featured in a New York Times investigation by Azmat Khan and Anand Gopal. There are thousands more who have suffered similar losses. In its latest civilian casualty report, dated Sept. 9, Operation Inherent Resolve admits that "at least 1,398 civilians have been unintentionally killed by Coalition actions since 2014." Monitoring groups like Amnesty International say the true casualty figures are much higher.

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