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Welcome to This Week in Iraq, your one-stop source for all of the most important Iraq news, curated by the editors of Iraq Oil Report. To sign up and receive this free newsletter in your inbox every week click here.
Top Stories
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is maneuvering aggressively to secure a second term, according to a variety of Baghdad insiders from across the political spectrum, who said the April 11 election of Nizar Amedi as president of Iraq was part of a broader gambit by Sudani to replace former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki as the nominee from Iraq’s main Shia Islamist political coalition, the Coordination Framework. Maliki had emerged as the Framework’s presumptive nominee in January but lost momentum when U.S. President Donald Trump publicly and forcefully opposed his candidacy. The Framework has not announced a new nominee, but Maliki's diminished stature was evident as almost all parties chose not to back an attempt, led by Maliki's State of Law coalition and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), to delay the election of a president by boycotting the Parliament session and preventing quorum. "Sudani threw his full weight behind holding the April 11 session, despite the objection of Maliki and [KDP leader Massoud] Barzani and their request for postponement," said a senior figure in the National Approach bloc, a party within the Coordination Framework. "He believes he'll be chosen as the Framework's nominee." Read the full story on Iraq Oil Report.
Iraq's wartime oil production cuts remain firmly in place, even as the government’s oil marketing company, SOMO, appears to be making tentative progress in lining up buyers to revive southern exports. The country is now producing about 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) nationwide, according to an Iraq Oil Report analysis based on data gathered independently from all of the country's developed fields — a slight increase from mid-March but still about 3.3 million bpd below February output levels. One empty tanker has recently passed through the Strait of Hormuz en route to Basra export outlets for crude loading, according to three BOC officials and a SOMO official, but it remains unclear when exports will resume at enough of a scale to support a ramp-up in oil field production. Read the full story on Iraq Oil Report.
Iraq is fast-tracking a project to send associated gas from the state-run Nahr Bin Omar field to the Basra Gas Company (BGC) for processing, expanding the portfolio of fields feeding BGC and enabling the company to use idle capacity at its new Basra Natural Gas Liquids (BNGL) facility. The effort is driven by an urgent need for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which is suddenly in short supply during an era of oil and gas curtailments caused by wartime disruptions to southern exports. Read the full story on Iraq Oil Report.
Energy & Economy
Iraq said it will import 200,000 tons of liquefied petroleum gas in response to wartime supply constraints, and introduced a coupon-based distribution system. Oil Ministry officials insisted there is no crisis, but also said they would be rationing cooking gas cylinders, Iraqi News reports. Such imports could be complicated by the same shipping restrictions that have shut down Iraqi crude exports, prompting reductions in crude oil and associated gas production, which is the primary cause of the LPG shortages.
Jordan is studying whether to allow Iraqi crude and fuel to be exported via truck as Baghdad looks for alternatives to disrupted southern routes, Rudaw reports. Jordan’s Energy Ministry said technical assessments are underway on Aqaba port capacity and potential volumes of crude and HFO.
Iraq could soon struggle to pay public-sector salaries, according to economist Mahmoud Dagher, who said in Azzaman that the government will have to borrow funds to cover its wage bill.
Security
The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain all summoned Iraqi diplomats over drone threats and attacks launched from Iraqi territory. Washington summoned Iraq’s ambassador after an April 8 attack on a convoy transporting American journalist Shelly Kittleson after she was released by kidnappers. According to a statement posted on X, attributed to State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott, Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau told Iraqi Ambassador Nizar al-Khairallah, alleging Iraq is failing to stop attacks on U.S. personnel and facilities. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia summoned Iraq’s ambassador on April 12 over what it described as drone threats from Iraqi territory targeting the kingdom and other Gulf states. A day later, Bahrain summoned Iraq’s chargé d’affaires and delivered a formal note of protest over what it called ongoing drone attacks launched from Iraq, while warning that it reserved the right to take necessary measures to protect its security.
Airlines across the Middle East are gradually resuming routes after the announcement of a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire, but cancellations, rerouting, and restrictions continue on many regional services, The National reports. Iraqi Airways has resumed domestic and some international flights in phases, while several foreign airlines were still limiting or suspending routes involving Iraq and other regional destinations.
Analysis & Commentary
There are four likely scenarios for choosing Iraq’s next prime minister, according to an analysis by Al-Mada. One option is for the Coordination Framework to stick with Nouri al-Maliki despite U.S. and Sunni objections. A second option is a conditional Maliki retreat in favor of a trusted alternative who is not Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. A third option is a second Sudani term backed by what his camp says is majority support inside the Framework. A fourth option is for a large share of the Coordination Framework to shed dissenting parties and submit a candidate, effectively redrawing the Shia political map in Baghdad. The election of Nizar Amedi as president sets a 15-day constitutional timer for the Coordination Framework to choose its direction.
Iraq’s energy crisis is no longer just about blocked exports, but about legal exposure, domestic fuel bottlenecks, and the collapse of credible workaround routes, oil expert Ahmed Moussa Jiyad argues in an online panel discussion posted on YouTube. Jiyad says the war-driven energy shock has moved beyond crude export disruption to expose a broader set of Iraqi vulnerabilities — for example, arbitration risks stemming from the Oil Ministry's invocation of force majeure clauses when ordering production curtailments; difficulties establishing viable secondary export routes via neighboring countries; and cascading problems with refining and power production stemming from storage constraints and limited export backup plans.
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