Top Stories

The effects of climate change are starting to hit Iraq acutely. From northern Iraq to the deserts of Basra, drought and water shortages are altering livelihoods, forcing villagers to move into already overcrowded cities, and driving instability that is likely to worsen in coming years, according to more than 20 officials and local residents interviewed over six months by Iraq Oil Report. The crisis is threatening to worsen the economic problems associated with Iraq's over-reliance on its oil industry and bloated public sector. In recent years, agriculture has been a rare source of non-government employment, so as farms dry up, there are few alternatives for Iraqi job seekers other than dependence on oil-funded government assistance. Read the full story on Iraq Oil Report.

Rumaila is Iraq's most prolific oil field, but it has been producing well below its capacity as the Oil Ministry limits nationwide production in response to OPEC-plus agreements. Hussein Abdul-Kadhim Hussein oversees the field's operations as the director of the Rumaila Operating Organization (ROO), an umbrella entity that includes field operator BP, PetroChina, and the state-run Basra Oil Company (BOC). In an interview with Iraq Oil Report, Hussein said talks are still ongoing to determine production targets for the next year or two. "There is a possibility that production levels will fall and then rise," he said. "We expect production to reach 1.65 million bpd in 2025." Those increases will require additional water injection to maintain reservoir pressure. Hussein discussed the status of old plans to recycle water that is produced along with crude oil, as well as the possibility of receiving a portion of the seawater that will be treated and piped to Basra oil fields as part of Iraq's mega-deal with TotalEnergies. Read the full interview on Iraq Oil Report.

In-person with Iraq's top decision-makers

A message from the Iraq Britain Business Council:

The IBBC Autumn Conference Nov. 22 in Dubai is a must-attend return to in-person events. Tickets are limited to meet CEO of the Trade Bank of Iraq Salem Chalabi, BP Iraq President Zaid Alyaseri, and senior officials from the federal Oil Ministry and Finance Ministry, and from the Kurdistan region's Ministry of Natural Resources.

Attendees will:

• Meet the main stakeholders in Iraq's energy, and finance, and industrial sectors in Iraq.
• Discuss the country’s energy transition.
• Learn how new investments and opportunities in oil, gas, and solar will make Iraq more sustainable and impact your business decisions.
• Network with IOCs, financiers and top industry leaders to build your business connections and opportunities.

Monday, Nov. 22, 2021, at The Address Hotel, Dubai Marina, UAE.

For more details and tickets, click here.

More National News

Iraq continues to serve as a theater for proxy conflicts between Iran and the U.S. and its allies. In the latest development, American and Israeli officials told the New York Times they believe an Oct. 20 attack on the American base at Al Tanf, which houses 200 U.S. troops, was a retaliation for a series of Israeli airstrikes in Syria — "the first time Iran has directed a military strike against the United States in response to an attack by Israel." Iran has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility. Eric Schmitt and Ronen Bergman report:

A Telegram channel run by affiliates of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said the strike was a response to the U.S. allowing Israeli attacks on “resistance” forces in eastern Syria. Militia commanders, it said, concluded that they “must pull the teeth of the snake,” meaning the United States.

... [One] U.S. official said the Iranians were reluctant to attack Israel for fear of retaliation, so they did the next best thing — strike the Americans. The official said that Iran wanted to avoid a direct confrontation with the Americans but took a big risk attacking Al Tanf, which could have killed American soldiers, forcing an American military response.

Two senior U.S. officials said that Iran may have believed that the drone strike would be seen as the initiative of militias rather than Iran.

American officials said the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in Syria, Javad Ghaffari, is an aggressive supporter of using military force to oust American troops from Iraq and Syria. But the officials said it was unclear how much the group’s leaders in Iran agreed with this approach.

Iraq and Saudi Arabia are planning to open a second border crossing. The two countries used to have four active crossings, but they were closed after the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. The Arar crossing was the first to be reopened, in 2020, and now the al-Jumaima crossing in Muthanna governorate will be the second. There are more signs of growing economic cooperation, as Salam Zidane reports for Al-Monitor:

A well-informed source in the Iraqi Central Bank told Al-Monitor that a large banking delegation will visit Saudi Arabia, headed by Central Bank Governor Mustafa Ghaleb, on Nov. 19, and that Saudi Arabia has agreed to open two branches of the Trade Bank of Iraq and the National Bank of Iraq. A similar delegation visited Saudi Arabia in October and agreed to open the two branches, which will develop banking and economic relations.

Alaa ad-Din al-Qaisi, spokesman for the Iraqi Border Ports Authority, told Al-Monitor that Saudi Arabia agreed to establish the al-Jumaima crossing in the Muthanna governorate, and it will bear the cost of its construction on the Iraqi side. The authority approved the Saudi proposal in its last meeting, but it may need over a year to establish it.

The UN has endorsed the fairness and integrity of Iraq's national elections. Several political actors who did not fare well in the Oct. 10 vote have claimed the preliminary results are not valid, particularly leaders of parties associated with Iran-backed armed groups. In a statement on Nov. 15, however, the UN Security Council said it had received a "positive assessment" from UN election monitors in Iraq and "congratulated the Government of Iraq and the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) for conducting a technically well-managed and generally peaceful election.... The members of the Security Council also welcomed UNAMI and IHEC findings that partial manual recounts of polling stations have matched IHEC’s electronic results-transmission system."

Moqtada al-Sadr continues to signal his ambition to form a majority government. Iraqi election authorities still have not released final results of the Oct. 10 vote, as several political blocs try to cast uncertainty on the integrity of the election, but preliminary results suggest Sadr won a commanding plurality of seats in the next Parliament. AFP reports on Sadr's press conference in Najaf on Thursday:

At a press conference, he addressed "political forces who consider themselves the losers of these elections" and said their defeat "should not open a path to the ruin of Iraq's democratic process."

What they are doing, he added, "will only accentuate the people's rejection of you."

... Sadr reiterated the necessity of forming a majority government, saying: "Our options, as an individual or entity, are either as a majority government or opposition."

Hundreds of Iraqi migrants have returned from Belarus. Jane Arraf reports for the New York Times:

The first repatriation flight to Iraq ferried home hundreds of migrants who had been trapped in worsening misery in Belarus, caught in an international standoff and unable to reach their goal, the European Union.

... The flight, arranged by the Iraqi government, was part of efforts to ease the humanitarian crisis that has unfolded as migrants, many of them from the Middle East, have tried and failed to enter Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, European Union countries that border Belarus.

Thousands of migrants remain in Belarus, and among those who returned, many said that despite futility and mistreatment, they would try again to reach the European Union.

Iraqi authorities said 430 people boarded an Iraqi Airways Boeing 747 in Minsk, the Belarusian capital. Of those, 390 disembarked in Erbil, and the rest at the next stop, Baghdad.

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