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Iran protests bring new volatility to Iraq’s politics and markets

Rising threats to Iran's regime have the potential to weaken Tehran's influence in Baghdad and disrupt cross-border trade and currency dynamics.
A demonstration in Tehran on Jan. 12, 2026. (MASOUD SHAHRESTANI/Wikimedia Commons)

SULAIMANIYA/ERBIL - The ongoing wave of protests in Iran has added a fresh layer of uncertainty for Iraq, altering political calculations in Baghdad while also testing the resilience of the economy in the Kurdistan Region and other border areas.

Even if the unrest across the border stops short of unseating the regime, Iraqi observers see the potential for significant impacts at home: a prolonged crisis could tighten informal dollar channels, disrupt cross-border trade, and weaken Tehran’s ability to steer Iraq’s next round of government formation.

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