Iran’s influence in Iraq is declining. Here’s why.
Iran’s once-indomitable influence in Iraq is waning, new public opinion data shows. The rise of Iranian influence can be traced to the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Iran filled a political vacuum left after the fall of Saddam Hussein in ways the United States could not, cultivating a wide range of Iraqi proxies and constituencies. Iran’s popularity […]Munqith al-Dagher writes for The Washington Post:
Iran’s once-indomitable influence in Iraq is waning, new public opinion data shows. The rise of Iranian influence can be traced to the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Iran filled a political vacuum left after the fall of Saddam Hussein in ways the United States could not, cultivating a wide range of Iraqi proxies and constituencies.
Iran’s popularity increased significantly in Iraq from 2003 until 2014. Iran’s strategy was to exploit Iraq’s sectarian divide, using Shiite parties to increase its influence not only among the political elite but also among average Iraqi Shiites. Sectarian religious propaganda was one of the main tools used by Iran to increase its popularity and hence influence among Iraqis.
But while many analysts treat Iran’s influence in Iraq as something akin to a natural fact, new public opinion survey evidence shows that Iran’s honeymoon with Iraqi Shiites is rapidly fading. This shift in attitudes could have profound effects on the future trajectory of Iraqi politics.
