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ISIS After The Caliphate

The defeat of ISIS in the Iraqi city of Mosul and its increasingly tenuous grip on its capital in Raqqa, Syria, demonstrates that the group can, and will, be physically defeated. In early July Iraqi security forces reported that they had broken through ISIS’ last line of defenses in Mosul, leaving ISIS in control of […]

Andrew Byers and Tara Mooney write for Small Wars Journal:

The defeat of ISIS in the Iraqi city of Mosul and its increasingly tenuous grip on its capital in Raqqa, Syria, demonstrates that the group can, and will, be physically defeated. In early July Iraqi security forces reported that they had broken through ISIS’ last line of defenses in Mosul, leaving ISIS in control of a strip of land along the Tigris River measuring only an eighth of a mile. In desperation ISIS even allowed women into battle as a way to slow Coalition advances. Female militants reportedly fired upon Iraqi forces with their children at their sides as human shields, thus preventing the use of air strikes to hasten ISIS’ final push from the city. Although ISIS will likely maintain guerrilla warfare against the people of Mosul, it is no longer able to boast that it controls Iraq’s second-largest city.

ISIS’ problems are larger than its defeat in Mosul. ISIS has already lost more than two-thirds of the territory it once held in Iraq and almost half of its Syrian territory. While the exact timeline and cost for physically defeating ISIS remains unclear, it is reasonable to assume that ISIS will lose control of its “caliphate” during the next year.

ISIS itself is increasingly hemmed in and risks losing control over the remainder of its territory, even in strongholds like Raqqa, which it needs to maintain its claim as a caliphate. Despite the loss of much of its territory and thousands of its loyal fighters in the fighting, it has already begun transitioning to a guerrilla force in areas it once dominated. In May 2017, U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Daniel Coats testified that even after these recent setbacks, ISIS “will likely have enough resources and fighters to sustain insurgency operations and plan terrorists attacks in the region and internationally” for the foreseeable future.